East Ukraine will be annexed by Russia. It's a fringe territory that just experienced a war, so it'll mostly stay poor, except some of the port cities, which prosper.

West Ukraine will remain an independent nation formally, but exactly who they'll be beholden to depends on how long the war continues and how strong Russia's position is (the longer the west forces this to drag out, the stronger Russia's position). If the war ended today, Ukraine would be hollowed out by western interests from all the privatization, deals, post-reconstruction poverty, etc. If the war keeps going, Russia will pick up more key businesses and resources in the negotiation, and the west will demand the same if not more from the remnants, hollowing it out even more. I don't think there's a point where the whole thing goes to Russia no matter how strong their position becomes, because I think they realize that the US would escalate even further if the finance vampires didn't get their promised blood.