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this post was submitted on 01 Sep 2024
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It's been a long time since we've seen a Russian loss of 10 tanks, despite it used to be average.
And even with consistently high personel losses compared to earlier, they've still managed to go higher than normal the past few days.
It seems the Russians are still pressing on despite the obvious futility and extreme costs of it.
If Russia was a person that behaved that way, I think that person would be considered clinically insane.
The sad thing is, it is not futile. They are gaining ground.
The cost might be high, but the highway is in sight and cutting the main lines between the eastern supply hubs would be strategically important.
The long term cost of the losses could be offset by pressing Ukranians from occupied territories into service as laborers and cannon fodder. It is gruesome.
I understand where you are coming from, but to call it that Russia is gaining ground is very subjective, Russia has been pushed back in several areas they took early on, Around Kiev, Around Kharkiv, around Kherson, just to take the VERY broad strokes. Currently Russia is gaining ground slowly on the east front, but not much anywhere else. While Ukraine has taken a small piece of Kursk.
I'd call that mostly a standstill, and Ukraine is refraining from taking territory back currently to save ressources, as attack is way more expensive than defense.
So yes I maintain that what Russia is doing is futile, because the cost are too high, their economy cannot handle to continue this kind of pressure.
Russia is probably hoping Trump will win the election in USA, but as I see it, even that will not open the way for victory for Russia. Other Ukrainian allies will probably step up more, and although possibly not fully cover the loss of American aid, it will be enough to help Ukraine to victory.
Remember Ukraine has still only gotten 10 out of 79 F-16, none of which are from USA. Europe cannot allow Russia to win if we can prevent it. And as long as Ukraine keep up the fight, Europe will keep helping them.
So yes the Russian war is futile, the losses are for nothing, except causing the Ukrainian people pain.
Kyiv
That 'small piece of Kursk' is more territory than Russia has gained between their Kharkiv withdrawal and subsequent slow grinding offensive.
The losses are for less than nothing. Even with their seemingly inexorable advance they've lost overall territory and fighting ability relative to Ukraine. I still project Russia has maybe 2 years tops of fighting left but so long as Ukraine limits their withdrawal rate to what we've seen of late they will win.
Yes sorry, I used the old Danish way of writing it.
That's a tough call, I think if Harris win the election and congress, this could be over sooner, like next summer but 2 years tops.
But if Trump win the election, Putin might declare war, which will enable him to sacrifice more than twice the personnel they've been doing for the past few months.
And Ukraine may have to do with less help than they are getting now.
But even then, the Russian economy is strained to the limit already, so they might not be able to increase their effort even if they declare war, and the Russian economy could easily collapse within 2 years.
So yes, I think although it's hard to say for sure, it's very likely that Russia can't take more then 2 years more of this. I'm pretty certain that already in ½ a year, we will begin to see that Russia is getting weaker. Next year around this time, if USA keeps helping, I'm pretty sure Ukraine will have a decisive advantage.