This right here.

Problem is not coding. Anybody can learn that with a couple of well focused courses.

I'd love to see an AI find the cause of a catastrophic crash of a machine that isn't caused by a software bug.

Agreed! Problem solving is core to any sort of success. Whether you're moving up or on for more pay, growing tomatoes or nurturing a relationship, you're problem solving. But I can see AI putting the screws to those of us in tech.

Haven't used it much so far, last job didn't afford much coding opportunity, but I wrote a Google Apps script to populate my calendar given changes to an Excel sheet. Pretty neat!

With zero experience App scripting, I tried going the usual way, searching web pages. Got it half-ass working, got stuck. Asked ChatGPT to write it and boom, solved with an hour's additional work.

You could say, "Yeah, but you at least had a clue as to general scripting and still had to problem solve. Plus, you came up with the idea in the first place, not the AI!" Yes! But point being, AI made the task shockingly easier. That was at a software outfit so I had the oppurtuniy to chat with my dev friends, see what they were up to. They were properly skeptical/realistic as to what AI can do, but they still used it to great effect.

Another example: Struggled like hell to teach myself database scripting, so ignorant I didn't know the words to search and the solutions I found were more advanced answers than my beginner work required (or understood!). First script was 8 short lines, took 8 hours. Had AI been available to jump start me, I could have done that in an hour, maybe two. That's a wild productivity boost. So while AI will never make programmers obsolete, we'll surely need fewer of them.