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this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2024
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Ukraine
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I'm not sure what the advantage is for Ukraine is to hold territory in this location? When they first went across the border, I thought they would attempt to flank the existing front lines, but they're headed in the wrong direction for that.
The obvious thing is this was poorly defended enemy territory. By attacking here they got through - Ukraine has entered more land in the last 2 weeks than Russia in all of 2024 (entered does not mean control).
This does several things for Ukraine that we know of. there may also be things it does we have not thought of and Ukraine isn't talking about.
It forces Russia to counter-attack to get their own land back. Defense is generally easier than offense so Ukraine can slowly retreat while inflicting lots of Russian losses. Those are troops that don't attack in Ukraine. Better yet, Ukraine doesn't really care to hold this land so they don't have to make as hard of decisions - if troops will be lost retreat (troops will be lost, but hopefully not as many as there is not much value in trading lives). They can also rig traps that would destroy the land, Ukraine isn't going to pay to rebuild it after the way so not their problem.
It pulls Russian troops out of Ukraine. Even after Ukraine withdraws Russia will be forced to keep more troops on the border to prevent Ukraine from doing this again. Those are troops (including supplies) that cannot defend in Ukraine and in turn that makes it easier to take back their own land back.
It gives Ukraine something to bargain with. "you want your land back, we wants ours, lets just trade and call it even". Russia isn't interested in any bargains at this time, but this gives Ukraine something to work with when they are, and also gives Russia reason to be interested. Overall nobody thinks this is a useful thing at the moment (Russia doesn't care), but it is a consideration.
Last (because you are most likely to remember what is last this is what I think is most important) this improves moral. Ukraine has been slowly losing land for months now - this gives a great moral boost: we can take land from Russia. Both defending troops celebrate and then fight harder, and also friends (NATO) can say aid isn't a lost cause as Ukraine can fight back.
The existing front lines are hundrets of km away. When you advance you have to move your supply line, air defence, artillery and so forth forward as well. If you move too deep, then it becomes easy for the enemy to target valueable assets, which should be a bit behind the front line. That is what Russia failed to do in the opening months of the war. They advanced a lot and Ukraine could just target air defence, artillery, tanks from behind, blow up or take supplie and so forth.
This would not have worked. The Russians are not that incapable.