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Planned Phase-outs of Gasoline/Diesel Cars
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cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/22605592
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this post was submitted on 23 Jul 2024
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Fuck Cars
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Every personal vehicle I've owned has been used. There's nothing wrong with them so long as they've been maintained. Commercial vehicles might be replaced every ten or twenty years depending on the use.
If combustion vehicles were banned tomorrow, it's not like the industry would just collapse. The manufacturers have so many fresh off the line vehicles piling up that they could stop assembly today and still have stock for a few years.
They could retool the factories inside a couple years, and resume churning out EVs as if nothing changed. The major issue we'd face would be the infrastructure crumbling around the additional weight, but that's another discussion entirely.
I find the additional weight argument pretty lame considering SUVs and just general size increases have been adding huge amount of weight to cars and noone batted an eye.
Just 30 years ago, the most common cars in Europe, hatchbacks, weighted about 1 ton. Now, the vast majority is SUVs that weigh 1.5-2.5tons, none have lithium batteries.
Oh, and don't get me started on the SUV/pickup craze in the US - look at the weight increase on that vs a European sedan, hatchback or a station wagon - eletric cars are not the problem, this are.
A huge part of that issue in america at least is related to the CAFE standards which basically made it economically unviable to build small and effecient cars. Unfortunately i think american evs will also be bigger and heavier than needed which means they'll need a bigger battery, have a higher cost, remain deadly for pedestrians and take up lots of urban space.
I'm familiar with CAFE standards but US politicians don't seem to have much intent on changing them.
And it is not economically unviable, it is just not as profitable because every other country produces and sells properly sized cars with a profit (except maybe Australia).
The weight is certainly a large factor in the crumbling of infrastructure. A bridge made 50 years ago was engineered based on traffic loads they extrapolated at the time. In the 1980's, there were around 100 million vehicles across the United States. Today, that number has nearly tripled.
Combine a tripling of the number of vehicles with the increasing average weight - sedan or not - and that's a much larger number than a lot of infrastructure was designed to handle. As a result, roads and bridges are degrading faster and faster.
This is a primary factor in the push to get people into smaller vehicles, which weigh less. As FireRetardant pointed out, CAFE makes this difficult as manufacturers are heavily incentivized to make these longer wheelbase vehicles. Which, surprise surprise, weigh more.