Doomers

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/47176078

Abstract

Assessing compliance with the human-induced warming goal in the Paris Agreement requires transparent, robust and timely metrics. Linearity between increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature offers a framework that appears to satisfy these criteria, producing human-induced warming estimates that are at least 30% more certain than alternative methods. Here, for 2023, we estimate humans have caused a global increase of 1.49 ± 0.11 °C relative to a pre-1700 baseline.

I think this chart bears no explanation.

About the author's struggle to find someone among his friends to speak to about collapse. He says, "Most of all, I want someone to hug me and say, “I know. I’m scared, too.” Lots of good links in there for further reading.

I ran across this article recently and thought I'd post it for comment. Ms Solnit addresses what she considers "doomer evangelism", and aims her criticism directly toward folks like me and others who might share my views. Although she makes some salient points, I regard most of her supporting assertions as not representative of my reaction to climate catastrophe. Not surprisingly, I take such misrepresentations personally and will take a moment to address one of these distortions.

Ms Solnit makes her thesis one that describes doomers as those who have surrendered in advance, do nothing to participate in efforts to achieve carbon neutrality, and who, by these actions, encourage others to do nothing. That is simply not true. Setting aside the fact that individual participation is a negligible activity, I'd posit that most doomers are already engaged in activities that support efforts to mitigate their own contribution to warming the planet.

I'll point to myself as an example: I live in a rural northeastern US community, where mass transit is nonexistent. When I did live in a city, I used public transportation whenever I could. I drive a hybrid vehicle and have plans to purchase an EV as soon as I can. I engage in recycling and avail myself of the local composting program. I am deeply cognizant of my water and electricity usage and actively seek ways to limit that consumption. I limit my purchases of products that use single-use plastic by buying in bulk whenever possible. I buy local produce and meat whenever possible, almost exclusively during growing season. I support local, regional and national policies that encourage conservation of natural resources and those that limit the release of carbon into the atmosphere.

These efforts are expensive and consume a larger than average financial burden for me, especially considering that I am retired, and living on a nearly fixed income. I am doing everything I can possibly do on an individual level to contribute to a healthier planet. I know it's not enough, and I recognize that larger societal and political realities prevent me from doing more. Yet, Ms Solnit would arrogantly declare my efforts to be settling for the worst outcome by doing nothing.

I have many more issues with Ms Solnit's view which I haven't the time or energy to presently address. Among them is her premise that my considerations are based on outdated research or misinformation. I'll save that discussion for another day.

A short essay about looming catastrophe and people's reactions to it.

FTFA: Former IPCC chief Prof Bob Watson, said: “I am very concerned. None of the observed changes so far (with a 1.2C temperature rise) are surprising. But they are more severe than we predicted 20 years ago, and more severe than the predictions of five years ago. We probably underestimated the consequences.”

10 basic points on the health of the AMOC, which if halts, will kill everything in the ocean.

The green revolution ended in 2015, when the number of food insecure people began to rise. Around 2.3 billion people in the world were moderately or severely food insecure in 2021, or nearly 30 percent of the global population – more than 350 million more people than in 2019.

It's just a matter of time until simultaneous crop failures, exacerbated by a non-resilient agricultural system, will force conflict between the few maintainers of the current economic system and everyone else.

What the ultra-rich want is to sustain and extend the economic system that put them where they are, but that system is unsustainable.

so... tipping point passed, or what?

It seems as though every week brings news that some predictor of climate change has been given less consequential value than warranted.

This week brings news of research that examines the likelihood of simultaneous global crop failures, and it's not a happy outlook.

FTFA:

Admittedly, this may all seem hopeless. But unlike a terminal illness, we know exactly what the problem is, we know exactly how to fix it, and we have all the solutions we need now. What is required is that we pay attention and get serious — quickly. Our future depends on it.

Yeah, right.

In 1970, Stanford professor Paul Ehrlich published a famous book, The Population Bomb, in which he described a disastrous future for humanity: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.”

Looking at population demographics, it's plain to see we're in trouble now. A society with no babies, has no future. We're all gonna starve to death with food riots tearing apart the fabric of society while the cities all burn.

Better make sure you got your long term food and water storage, seed banks and grid-out cooking skills up to snuff!

Last year, 48% of honeybee colonies in the US died off. Beekeepers claim improved strategies have stabilized populations, but broad challenges remain.

When the honeybees are gone, humanity's demise is certain.

This study, newly published in Nature Sustainability, explores the influence of primary stress, additional stress, and erratic events on Earth System, using data from 4 recent environmental collapse events. As one might expect, results pointed to -39% - 80% acceleration in global ecosystem collapse predictions, potentially advancing current models' catastrophe deadlines from 2100 to 2030.

1 in 20 Americans have the "forever chemicals" in their drinking water. The new, $10.3-billion deal will kickstart the clean-up process.

This is a good, concise and readable guide to the major data points about global warming.

(paywalled)

Like most of this country's infrastructure, California's dams were built without regard for the truly severe weather that climate change makes possible. In the US, electrical grids, coastlines, transportation networks, communication facilities are all vulnerable to extreme weather.

What, if anything, is your community doing to prepare its infrastructure for the ravages that rising temperatures will bring?

Once again, we are experiencing the intensity of a climate event that far surpasses what was ever predicted under current conditions.

Marine heat waves (MHW) have increased 20-fold, according to this study. It is projected that such events, occurring once every hundreds to thousands of years under a pre-industrial climate, will occur at least every decade under 1.5ºC conditions and annually under 3.0ºC conditions.

However, the MHW currently underway in the North Atlantic is “very exceptional,” said Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute and is “way beyond the worst-case predictions for the changing climate of the region."

Published 21 April, 2022, this not-yet-peer-reviewed study (pdf) applied the Ginzburg-Landau theory (Wikipedia) to model future conditions on this planet. Predictably, even the best case scenarios presented dismal outcomes.

Mixotrophic microbes are single-celled organisms such as plankton and paramecium that are able to switch between photosynthesis and predation for survival. Plankton is the base food source for all marine trophic levels. Normally, these microbes employ photosynthesis, absorbing carbon and providing 70% of atmospheric oxygen. But their switch to eating other single-celled critters releases carbon.

The mechanism for the switch is not well understood, but appears to be triggered by a rise in the temperature of their environment. Their switching could indicate a tipping point for sustainable marine life and accelerate global temperature increase.

Although the linked study examined attitudes of those 16 to 25 years of age, there are many outside that range (myself included) who experience extreme pessimism about the future of human existence.

What experiences led you to your own conclusions about the fate of humanity? Do those conclusions affect your everyday decisions? How does your acceptance of imminent calamity shape your long term goals?

I'll start. I was but a child in the 1960's (Boomer II), born into a family deeply involved in charismatic Christianity. Fear surrounding the predicted events of a highly anticipated second coming of Christ (The Rapture, Tribulation, etc.) combined with the exaggerated cultural threat of communist aggression and the certainty of thermonuclear destruction created a perfect storm of personal despair and dread by the time I was 9 years old. As the fundamentalist Christian culture edged toward prosperity gospel and Seven Mountains, my mind turned towards nihilistic and scientific literature.

By my teenage years, I was solidly convinced that nothing short of a miracle could save humanity prior to my 30th birthday. Yet, here we are. The angst of my childhood absolutely shaped the trajectory of my life. Secondary education seemed a senseless enough endeavor to ignore. I considered reproduction to be a cruel endeavor. I embraced agnosticism, punk culture and anarchism.

The privileged existence of being white, privileged and cis male has served me well, and I can't say that I'm unhappy. I find succor in the growing probability that a natural death will spare me the majority of horrors to come. And I am sad and angry for what subsequent generations are about to experience.

What's your story?

Heat waves of this nature are becoming more frequent as our climate catastrophe continues.

The technology to do this exists, but it will never happen. Like any other organism, humans will use up all available finite resources until death is certain.