It’s always, always 2027
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joined 6 months ago
I read their spreadsheet and their % progress numbers in terms of AI capabilities is MASSIVELY skewed by Claude Mythos. The rest of it is below the mark if you exclude that.
They also admitted that the “China wakes up” prediction hasn’t happened yet, and Kokotajlo still claims that the scenario is “roughly on track” even though the US/China race is important for the scenario, and if China hasn’t woken up, that derails things pretty hard imo. So does OpenAI’s slowing down announcement
I took a quick look over the article again, this spreadsheet contains how they measure their metrics. "Compute" seems to be based off number of chips, which is probably in part based off data centres anyways
And apparently they have ditched METR and are now using "coding uplift (i.e., how much of a speedup AIs are providing to software engineers at AGI companies) and revenue."
Yeah that's what tripped me up, because if that was true then it'd make no sense why the percent of progress went up while the uplfit number went down.
The tech bros have no one to blame for this but themselves. They're the ones who pushed the 'it'll take your jobs/its super scary' narrative more than anyone else
According to one of the writers apparently 17% is supposed to be 'progress is 17% slower than expected', so the 34% figure here implies progress is 34% slower than expected, so that's actually worse
It just occurred to me that this makes Anthropic look bad, actually
if OpenAI is slowing down because they concerned about ~~money~~ AI safety, then it makes Anthropic look like fools for publishing that blog where they waffle on about keeping up the race because of “bad actors”
If OpenAI is slowing down, an Anthropic that actually is concerned about safety would slow down too. But they won’t, because ~~money~~ ~~China~~ “bad actors”
Here's that side-by-side comparison
Well it took longer than I expected, but the AI 2027 guys finally posted a second update
This table is essentially the TLDR
They also finally explained the "2025 was 75% of AI 2027's progress" thing and it seems like that number was mostly skewed by revenue (edit: valuation) numbers (Edit 2: apparently this is wrong?? the 75% figure is supposed to represent 2026 progress. So 2025 was still 65%, I think. These people are confusing)
For some reason their website lists the date of ASI as 12/2028 even though their actual graph only had a 32% chance tops of ASI happening on that date
I searched for “eugenics” on yud’s xcancel (i will never use twitter, fuck you elongated muskrat) because I was bored, got flashbanged by this gem. yud, genuinely what are you talking about
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Telling people that the guy AI superintelligence guy also posted a Harry Potter self-insert fanfic to push his beliefs and recruit people to his ideology is a huge bombshell to drop on someone