Hamas just fired some rockets from north gaza this morning, Rafah isn't the last stronghold of Hamas, it's the last stronghold of Palestinian children and women
Rafah is considered to be the last stronghold of Hamas
By who? There's a great argument that this war exposed Israel's intelligence as sorely lacking, and they have a vested interest in declaring victory.
I was expecting this whole operation to result in the destruction or near-destruction of Israel
I think it's far more likely we see a resolution closer to post-apartheid South Africa.
I think it's far more likely we see a resolution closer to post-apartheid South Africa.
If what you're saying is true, it seems more hopeful of an ending, at least, considering the multipolarity of this world...
I disagree with you. There are lots of factors involved here, but consider some things
Even if Hamas lost the combat tomorrow, Israel is politically too fragile. In time, this will result in serious consequences. Look at Iraq right now: the usa position in this country was very fragile, and now that this crisis arrived, they are being taken out. And the end of all of this, they (iraqs) will emerge as a more sovereing country. Wait and see what will happen in Oman and Jordania.
That being said, i dont think Hamas will lose military as things are, but Burguersam can always interfere. Theres a reason why Israel is trying to start a war with lebanon, they want things to get "out of control" so that the usa "needs" to intervene. Why?
Look at Vietnan War history. Look at the history of the palestine combats. Look at the history of south africa, chinese revolution, Leningrad, cuban revolution etc. The history of glorious Haiti defying fuckin Napoleon. You dont need to have faith, you need to know history better to undertand The Power of resistance
And even then, Israel (and the West in general) has completely and permanently lost any facade of "civility.". The aging imperialists in charge are trying to recycle the same strategies from Korea, Vietnam, Panama, East Timor, and so on, except this time the entire world is watching and remembering. These massacres aren't just something being read about in the paper. These soldiers are gleefully making tiktoks of their depraved war crimes while a senile American president fails to gaslight the rest of world that its not happening.
Even if the Palestinians are completely displaced from Gaza, it's just a matter of time before the Israeli state is in ruins. The most powerful tool that imperialism has is the mask of legitimacy that upholds its narratives. And the US and Israel, as regimes in decline, will never be able to restore it. While things are pretty bleak and are bound to become more violent in the shorter term, the writing really is on the wall for the yankee empire.
Remember that "Israel" occupied all of Palestine, including Gaza and the West Bank, for many years after the 1967 war and it still wasn't enough to destroy the resistance.
I don't see this ending in occupation, but expulsion. Israel wants that land and doesn't want the people, it's an obvious next step.
All they need is a partner to take expelled Palestinians and they crush resistance forever.
That's genocide, sure, but that won't stop them.
It takes one collaborator Arab government to collapse for there to be another Yemen. If that government is Egypt or Jordan, Israel is done for. It’s hated by everyone in the region, it will always be resisted
I think Egypt and Jordan are far from becoming another Yemen but I could be wrong. I do think the Americans will go to great lengths to prop up their puppets there. Even if Palestine was completely calm, losing one of those would be a disaster for them.
Both are ripe for revolution, both have high unemployment and poverty rates. In Egypt conditions are worse than 2011. The very exact opposite of the Arabian Gulf states where generally the people are fat and happy.
Of course many governments have vested interest in the Egyptian junta remaining in power. The Arabian Gulf governments are taking the approach of providing it with financial support.
How do you see the situation in Rojava and the question of jesidic people in Syria, and Turkey's position, what do you think about the PKK? I ask cause it seems you did spend some time thinking about the geopolitics of the region.
I don’t think I can form a coherent opinion on Rojava and the PKK. I am Saudi and my government support of them makes me suspicious, at the same time I don’t trust Turkye. Ethnic and religious minorities deserve rights and protections that aren’t provided to them, and they have the right to fight for them but carving nation states out of Syria and Iraq is not the solution.
All they need is a partner to take expelled Palestinians and they crush resistance forever.
Palestinians don't just disappear if they are sent to Egypt.
They don't, but it will be a lot easier for the occupiers to colonize Gaza if the indigenous population has been deported. That is what the original Nakba was about.
Has long as the Palestinian people exist, and as long as their land remains occupied by settlers, their struggle will not be over.
I was expecting this whole operation to result in the destruction or near-destruction of Israel
How? That is simply not realistic considering the scope of this conflict. Israel has infinitely more resources and more manpower, this has always been a case of asymmetrical warfare.
There isn't enough being done by other nations to stop Israel.
This is being done precisely because NATO and the US supports Israel and sends them weapons and funding. They value their own interests in the region more highly than the lives of Palestinians. In fact, Israel wouldn't even exist without foreign support.
This conflict will only be resolved when supporting Israel becomes more trouble than it is worth, either because of the political turmoil at home is not worth the benefits, because the money spent on it outweights the profits, or simply because the crumbling empire no longer has the means to support it's vassals.
It's imperative to organize at home and to agitate against Israel if you're an USian, it might not seem like much but the more you pressure your government to stop supporting genocide abroad the closer we are to resolving this conflict.
The Zionist entity is trying to pick a fight with every neighbor, and the US is trying to provoke Iran. I wouldn’t assume this is the end if I were you. Decades happening in weeks right now.
Like the Yemenis said "we don't care we don't care make it a third world war"
What you have to remember is that the US deliberately parked the Navy right off the coast of Palestine for the sole purpose of keeping anyone from sending a force to intervene. All the lack of help for Palestineans is part of the plan.
Roses are red
Violets are blue
The moral arc of history bends towards justice
Can't have an ethnostate these days
From my very smooth brain understanding of things...
The nation of Palestine, currently, is a series of territories where the Palestinian people have been forced in to by the Israeli Occupation Forces. Each territory is pretty much independent from the others as they are cut off from each other by the IOF. So if Hamas is completely destroyed or is depleted to a point of being a non-actor, Palestinians will still exist. At least for a while. I'm not sure what Hamas' goal was in kicking over the hornets nest that they did, maybe it was to "die on their feet instead of their knees" or maybe it was a desperate attempt to "bring attention to the quiet genocide being committed by the Israeli government" but it was never going to be "completely destroy the nation of Israel and retake their lands."
But Israel's reputation on the world stage has been deeply damaged in a way that is going to be very hard to repair or ignore. I'm not sure how much that matters but its not nothing.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood happened when it did because it was the ideal time. It’s true what’s happening is tragic, but it was either way. Out of all the options available for resistance, this was the best possible. You’re right about the goal. Their slogan was “victory or martyrdom.” They exposed “Israel” to the world as a paper tiger and got the world to care.
It seems they're completely occupied but are still fighting in the rubble
I don't consider them to be in a favorable position. I'm not sure many positive changes in the world happen from favorable positions, though.
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