Rocket ship up, parachute down. Always.
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Well yeah, even if all the infrastructure was untouched by the war it would still take months to get all those drill sites operational again, many are likely contaminated with ground water that will make extraction much more difficult. Tensions will still be high so shipping will still be dangerous and more expensive as well.
But loads of infrastructure has been damaged, so even if the war ended right now and drilling operations got started right away, production will be nowhere near what it was 8 weeks ago.
Shocking, truly. Almost as predictable as relationship between crude and petrol. If crude prices rise, petrol becomes pricier. And if crude prices fall, petrol gets pricier.