this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2026
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cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/6474339

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With high probability we predict a transition from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by the Russian security services with significant human casualties. Expected time - on the eve or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar [7 January, ed]. The place of provocation may be a religious building or other object with a high symbolic weight both in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, " the SVR [Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine] said.

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According to the SVR, to falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, the Russians plan to use the wreckage of Western-made attack UAVs that will be delivered to the site of the provocation from the battle line.

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Exploiting fear and committing terrorist acts with human casualties under a "foreign flag" is fully in line with the working style of the Russian security services. The Putin regime has repeatedly used this tactic inside Russia, and now the same model is being exported outside, which is indirectly confirmed by public statements by top Russian officials, " the Foreign Intelligence Service stressed.

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The intelligence agency emphasises that after the Russians' loud statements about the alleged "Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence" (which international experts have not found any confirmation of), the experts have noted that the Kremlin is spreading new disinformation ... probably doing this to prepare their own and foreign audiences for further escalation [and disrupting peace talks].

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In this regard, the Ukrainian SVR asked the media to question and thoroughly check the materials released by the Kremlin in order not to contribute to the spread of Russian fakes.

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[–] fox2263@lemmy.world 6 points 4 days ago

I member just before the war that the Biden admin pretty much stated exactly what Russia is currently doing and planning - so it was all out in the open and there could be no ambiguity/false claims.

Think that needs to still happen loudly

[–] rayyy@piefed.social 6 points 4 days ago

Wouldn't be the first time Putin killed innocent civilians for political gain.

[–] Deceptichum@quokk.au 5 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

So domestically things must be going south?

Because this isn’t going to change the opinion of those who are already against Russias imperialist invasion of Ukraine.

Which leads me to think it’s purely for a domestic audience to renew their “passion” for the invasion.

[–] Lembot_0006@programming.dev 1 points 4 days ago

Please, make it in Moscow and let the amount of victims be a few millions!