More than 5 million people signed up within hours, let's assume they will have 30 million users by the end of the month. I'm sure there are Mastodon users will consider switching to Threads.

https://www.marketing-interactive.com/meta-threads-garners-5-million-signups-in-first-few-hours

And not to mention the Threads app is a privacy nightmare. I'm sure they can figure out any fediverse user, If fediverse server remains federated with meta server.

One more thing, this mastodon server admin declined an invitation from meta

Plus knowing meta, they'll problary select a handful of instances to federate with. Meaning this plan is stupid.

It's already happened in the past, it will happen in the future.

But Mastodon has less users than Threads already, if someone wanted to jump ship for more conversation wouldn’t they do it already? Heck, wouldn’t they have stayed on twitter?

Plus if all a lot of people who you follow are on threads then it might be a more attractive option to just switch platforms so you can see their content again after meta defederates

Mastodon.social is the biggest instance

There's plenty of conversation already existing. Even my single user instance is barely keeping up.

Its not like this is how federation works, federation happens in 3 ways: a person follows a user, thus getting their posts, an instance follows a relay, which gets sent posts and spreads them back out like a vaccum, and 3rd boosting posts.

I don't see threads changing all that much if people don't follow those accounts, and or meta doesn't follow relays and send their posts out through relays.