I think the real indicator of the war to me has always been the casualty rate and the resources spent. It went from 5 dead UKR to 1 dead RUS right from the start, now we're at 10:1 ratios--atrociously bad. The billions in Western weapons, tanks, and cold hard cash have all evaporated; their economies are in shambles while Russia's "fortress economy" lives up to its name.

It only looks like a stalemate if we look at it from the lens of territory. If Russia defined its own victory conditions as capturing all of Ukraine territorially in the shortest amount of time, they could have swept the entire country in a month or two. However, Russia defines victory by minimizing its own losses while bleeding Ukraine, minimizing civilian losses and destruction of civilian infrastructure, beating the West in the economic arm wrestle, and ensuring that liberated Ukranian territory is not a frothing hotbed of Neo Nazi paramilitary terrorist activity. By all of these self-defined victory metrics, they have consistently been performing exemplarily with only minor hiccups.

Even when some form of peace declaration is signed, the war won't be over. Banderites and their NATO masters will be waging war with Russia until the West as we know it has completely collapsed and been reinvented.