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Collapse Will Look Nothing Like in the Movies
(thehonestsorcerer.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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The chief problem with solar photovoltaic or wind turbine power is that its EROEI is uncomfortably close or even is below unity, if you include its supporting fossil input and mineral extraction. Right now the technology is only an extender of fossil fuels and chemical inputs. We also see in the global energy consumption chart that the renewable power is not substituting fossil inputs but only adding to it. Due to the nature of asymmetry of decline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seneca_effect we can expect the decline of fossil inputs to be much faster, putting the deployment rate or even sustained existance of the marginal renewable base into jeopardy.