Probably not. The French left, right, and Macronist Center Right clearly have an evenish split with none of the three blocks big on giving one another a majority. So power is going to be who gets the plurality

[–] Womble@piefed.world 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Currently the polls have Le Pen winning in the second round against Melonchon or a centrist if she gets to through the second round (whihc seems almost certain).

[–] green_red_black@slrpnk.net 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

It's a dead heat for second place. And while polls say that I am not 100% sure they are accounting for tactical voting

[–] Womble@piefed.world 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

There is no tactical voting in the second round of a presidential election, there are only 2 candidates. It would be a straight up choice of do the French people prefer a centrist/leftist or a fascist.

[–] green_red_black@slrpnk.net 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

aka a tactical vote as one literally has the option to not vote or spoil their ballot (risk of causing a vote split situation obviously but still.)

[–] Womble@piefed.world 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

I guess. Bit odd to describe just a regular vote of picking one of the two available options as tactical voting though. The polling definitely takes people voting into account.

[–] green_red_black@slrpnk.net 1 points 4 days ago

polling takes into account what one answers. if someone where to say they would not pick one or the other well then they couldn't be marked down, the polls in this situation doesn't have an undecided option.

[–] Sunshine@piefed.ca 1 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I do not understand how the second round voting system works. Quebec has first-past-the-post 🤢

[–] green_red_black@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 week ago

If no majority wins in first round the top two face off in the second round. This usually results in a electoral tactical vite of some kind