this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2026
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Russia needs the baltic sea for oil and now grain transport. Nato countries not bordering russia can stop that traffic completely. That might impact russian calculations towards provocation rather than outright invasion.
To a lesser degree article 5 tests might be affected by nuclear proliferation fears. Poland mostly but Sweden and Finland too. Together they are capable, if not currently willing. Russia's brutality in Ukraine makes it quite nasty to think about fighting them in our own territory