Interesting (if true) - Economist is in the major leagues in terms of reliability. There is a "They", and it's probably the intelligence services. And the actual method would probably be less dignified than a hanging.

Not only is there a "they", but it says Putin is entirely self-aware about the situation, and that he understands that he is personally accountable for this war.

This isn't an optimistic post - frankly the grim truth has always seemed that this industrial murder festival will go on as long as he does. Russia of the last hundred years has been essentially a crime syndicate. To say he's a Tsar kind of misses the point - the REAL power is the intelligence servies, and the Tsar-proxy is kind of a figurehead.

If he said this, it's very telling. He knows the war is going badly, he knows his life is personally depenent on the outcome, he fears "they", he wants to live and he doesn't know what to do. Seems highly likely he'll conitnue to escalate until.....? Russian history suggests that when things don't go well, they purge the leader and put all the blame on him in retirement. Don't think Putin will get the "Kruschev Dacha Retirement" package - he's done WAY too much damage.

Hopefully "They" are paying attention too, and are getting tired of the lack of progress.

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[–] TwinkleToes@lemmy.ca 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

I try to be exceedingly fair in the posthumous review of the facts. It was objectively crazy from a financial perspective for the russians to do what they did. They've destryoed their primary, most profitable and local energy market for a generation. All of the easy-to-access oil has already been extracted - everything else from here on in is more expensive to bring to market, and that's even IF they can get the equipment and expertise due to the sanctions they've earned. The european thinking was that it was a win-win setup - cheap energy for them, and reliable revenue for the Russians. There's no cure for greed though.

And - in 2014 the U.S. was not quite insane yet. Obama was president, Trump was a punchline, the US seemed totally committed to it's Cold War role as europe's security guarantor. All the shitstorm that has followed with Trump's ascension is somewhere between unusual and unique.

The lack of response to Crimea aboslutely lit the fuse on this invasion, and what it indicated was badly misjudged by Western leaders. But - I can understand their inaction. Baltics and Poland are junior members of NATO - they just are, and their voices don't carry as much weight compared to Paris, Washington, Berlin and London. The EU was complacent (and still is, to a degree) - depending formerly on American strength, and now on Ukrainian resolve.

The necessity of a strong response from Europe to the seizure of Crimea seems obvious now - but that forgets that it still seemed crazy that Putin would do what they have, or that it would go so badly if he did.

TL:DR - Europe should have taken the threat more seriously, but they misjudged that energy dollars would keep Putin at bay. Obama, Merkel, Hollande and Cameron all failed the test,