this post was submitted on 31 Aug 2026
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Thanks for asking. My thoughts - the most telling thing about the Wagner rebellion is that while nobody joined him - nobody stopped him either. The intelligence services called up all the Wagner leadership and said we will kill all of your family in 24h if you don't stop now. You know - a good guys move. The strength and weakness of an authoritarian dictatorship oppressing fatalistic, cynical sheep citizens is that the people aren't particularly keen to die for you - they just want to know who's in charge.
Wagner would have been intentionally liquidated or relocated to Africa by now - they'd fulfilled their purpose. If I put on my Prighozin hat, he would have been better to hold Rostov and Belgorod hostage just as his leadership's families were. Not that Moscow gives a wet donkey fart about the citizens of Rostov and Belogorod, but - they need those cities to run their Donbas invasion and the logisticis to keep Crimea, and project power into the Mediterranean and Africa. Priggy was a dead man the second he turned his wheels east, but he would have lived longer had he not marched towards Moscow.
I think he realized too late that he had been used, and that all his undeserved wealth was going to be siphoned away.