Over 113,000 people crossed the border between Russia and Georgia in just one week, at a time when rumors of a new mobilization are increasing. The Kremlin denies preparing such a measure, but recruitment is becoming more aggressive, and many Russians prefer to leave the country ahead of the parliamentary elections in September.
Traffic through the Verhni Lars border crossing, the main land route between the two countries, has increased significantly in the second half of August. According to Russian authorities, over 20,000 people crossed the border on some days.
In total, over 33,000 vehicles and 113,000 people crossed the border in just one week, writes Politico.
The number is reminiscent of the chaos in the fall of 2022 when Vladimir Putin announced the „partial” mobilization of 300,000 reservists. Over 100,000 Russians entered Georgia in just a few days, and hundreds of thousands fled to Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, or other destinations.
This time there is no official mobilization order yet. That is precisely the difference: people are no longer waiting for the Kremlin’s announcement but are trying to leave preve
...
Rumors point to the period after the elections for the State Duma, scheduled between September 18 and 20, as the moment when the Kremlin could announce a new call to arms.
At the beginning of August, the Russian Supreme Court excluded the federal list of the Yabloko party from the elections, the only party that was trying to participate with an explicit anti-war program.
Ukraine claims that Vladimir Putin aims to bring hundreds of thousands more people into the army. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia intends to recruit 300,000 soldiers after the September elections and another 300,000 next year.
...
Official denials have not dispelled fears, especially after human rights organizations reported an intensification of forced recruitment.
In several regions of Russia, police and military recruiters have reportedly started picking up men from the streets, workplaces, or even from their homes. They are taken to recruitment centers and pressured to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.
„It has turned into a manhunt,” described human rights lawyer Alexei Tabalov. According to him, the methods used include deception, blackmail, violence, and threats.
Recruiters target vulnerable individuals, such as men with debts, suspects in criminal cases, detainees, students with problems, or people who can be easily coerced. There are also cases where conscripts have allegedly been forced to sign contracts to be sent to Ukraine.
In the city of Omsk, a 31-year-old man was reportedly detained for drinking beer in the street and taken directly to a military selection center, where he was pressured to enlist. In the Penza region, locals reported that men are taken from the streets or searched from door to door.
...
The system is starting to show signs that it can no longer cover the losses on the front. According to Western officials cited by The Guardian, Russia loses about 6,000 more troops each month than it can recruit, despite bringing in almost 1,000 people into the army daily.
A new mobilization would be risky for Putin. The one in September 2022 sparked protests in several regions, a massive exodus of the active population, and a decline in trust in authorities. The departure of a large number of specialists also affected the economy, already facing a labor shortage.
...
That is their go to pre text but it means shit if you can't mobilize an armed force to do the invasion. And well Russia is showing it can't maintain it's invasion of Ukraine, so imagine how much self inflicted damage would happen if now Invading Georgia would be on top of it.