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Grainne@lemmy.dbzer0.com

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen polling at record high ahead of 2027 election (www.middleeasteye.net)

submitted 5 days ago by supersquirrel@lemmy.ca to c/world@quokk.au

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[–] supersquirrel@lemmy.ca 1 points 5 days ago (1 children)

If it’s Melenchon then things will be unpredictable as it’ll come down to who the centrists vote for - and there are plenty on the right who would never vote for Melenchon. However if shes against a centrist, then she’s more likely to lose even if they’re deeply unpopular now, because they’re the easier “anyone but Le Pen”.

Where is the evidence of this? This assumption proved catastrophic in US elections, Biden was an awful choice to run against Trump and so was Harris.

[–] ChairmanMeow@programming.dev 1 points 4 days ago

Polling data. In head-to-head matchups Melenchon does worst against Le Pen (and it's not close, two-thirds would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon).

A candidate who needs to win against a far-right candidate needs to not alienate either centrists or the left. That means a strong core message focused on issues rather than ideology or radicalism. Biden/Harris didn't have a strong core message and alienated voters on the left, Melenchon is far too much of an idealogue and radical so he's alienated the centrists. A lot of centrist voters prefer Le Pen to Melenchon because Melenchon turned them away, not because Le Pen was so attractive.