this post was submitted on 31 Jul 2026
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I think China would have pursued it regardless, they just might have relied more heavily on European tech then they do now and thus would have delayed their home grown tech. Or if Europe played their cards right would have resulted in a better trade alliance with China and have benefitted both economic areas by exchanging tech advances sidelining the US. This last one might be a bit to much of a utopia though
it's really inefficient to pursue such a massive research endeavor if ASML was just normally open for business. To do all that work was only justified by it opening a chance in domestic semiconductor production which is the real price for China. Now they are probably also wanting to compete in DUV machines in the future, to recoup the development costs, even if the real price is the self-sufficiency that they bring.