this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2026
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Roughly 5.75 per 100,000 people/year, versus 1.33 per 100,000. So closer to 4x. But even then, we're talking about a 0.04% change in incidence.
A bit like saying you're 5x as likely to win the lottery.
France is at around 1.3, Germany at around 0.9, UK somewhere in between, if a quick search is to be trusted.
And I think change in incidence is a weird way to express this. Yes, the average person is not likely to die of homicide, even in "unsafe" countries. But at the same time, the chance of a man to get testicular cancer is around 0.01%; if I would be 5 times as likely to get testicular cancer than the people from other places, I would very much want to look into that.
Okay, but that's it. Full stop. Minor variations don't say much about these countries.
Then the risk is still microscopic, especially with the variance by neighborhood and income and circumstance.