this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2026
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LLMs do better with more compute, but it's logarithmic.
They raced up the soft part of the curve, thinking it was the start of an exponential.
I think that's the core issue; they bet a trillion dollars expecting compounding returns, and got diminishing ones.
If I were an employee/shareholder, I'd have been happy to hear the first part of his message ("oh good he finally gets it") and then miserable again when he says he does believe the singularity will happen, just in 3-6 months.
Yeah, that's the ruthless extrapolation. It's like plotting the air speed of planes from Wright brothers to Concorde, continue drawing the line going upward and conclude that by 2026 you'll go from Paris to New York in five minutes. It never works like that.