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Of course there will have to be a major scientific breakthrough. As there have been many scientific breakthroughs to get to where we are now with smartphones.
Your smartphone houses a lot of technology that was either nonexistent or room-sized at the time. I mean, in 1926 most people still moved around by horse-and-carriage, we had cameras but they were analog, as were film projectors. Now we have a 4k+ digital camera and an OLED screen and they’re only a small part of an entire array of technology scientists at the time couldn’t even fathom, except for maybe Nikola Tesla, although he also made a lot of predictions that turned out to be false.
That was a long series of inevitable predictable progress in engineering.
This isn't a matter of ordinary engineering challenges to be overcome. What I'm talking about is something that upends our understanding of reality. Not just an evolution of what we already know, but a revolution that changes almost everything about our understanding of how the universe works. Discovering new unimagined forms of matter. Things like that.
If it was so predictable, why couldn’t anyone in 1926 have predicted it with accuracy? The point is, they couldn’t and so can’t we.
Also, it’s definitely about engineering issues. In fact, scientists are already working on ways to overcome the major obstacles you named.
The general computer didn't exist in 1927. Once it did, yes it was predicted and expected they would get smaller, more powerful, efficient, and common. There was no physics getting in the way of it.
Of course, every increment is predictable after you make the scientific breakthrough. Not before, though.
The artificial computer wasn't so much a scientific breakthrough as a conceptual one. It didn't require anything that didn't already exist.
The quantum computer does exist. And it's functional principles are built on physics not engineering. It's a fundamentally different situation.
If I'd be able to ever collect, I'd bet you $10K in an investment account, that in 10 generations quantum computers still won't be portable personal devices.
Neither does this. You just don’t know about it yet. And the link I provided you with shows that.
Not true. Electrical currents are physics too. And quantum computers have hardware too.
What are your arguments for this? I’ve shown you that your central argument is already being addressed.
What exactly is this, that I don't know about?
And how does Moore's Law apply?
I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing.