this post was submitted on 29 Apr 2026
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He fucked it up, but the problem won't go away if he just pulls the U.S. out. The strait is Iran's stranglehold on the world economy, and it isn't going to just give that up. It's going to use it to get something. Trump created a nightmare for which there is no simple solution, and former allies now see the U.S. as a threat. Things are going to get much worse before they get better.
Eh, Iran, despite being led by crazy religious zealots, they have actually been the reliable one in the war.
They gave everyone warning that if attacks continued they would shut down the strait.
They did.
When the ceasefire was announced by Pakistan with a joint crafted message, it stated Lebanon was included in the ceasefire. Iran stated their intention to open the strait when Israel stopped attacking Lebanon. When, eventually, Israel did.
They opened the strait.
They asked for Trump to lift his blockade or they would close the strait until it was. Trump refused. They closed the strait.
They are now offering a return to pre-war conditions, no blockade by the US or by Iran, and nuclear talks. Not even including Lebanon this time, at least publicly.
I think the problem would more or less go away if Iran's demands were met. Iran would charge a "small" toll for war reparations until they felt they were made whole, and traffic would resume. Assuming Israel would stop bombing them indefinitely. Iran would probably still fund terrorist groups (maybe increase funding; and start targeting the US and US interests as well), and would probably race to get nuclear weapons, but the oil would flow again.
Yeah I know its not going to be a snap your fingers situation, but I expect Iran would be more willing to make transit through there easier in the future once the us fucks off