this post was submitted on 28 Apr 2026
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We are already 3 years into 'in 3 months AI will replace all programmers'.
The only reason why there is even such a big AI hype in CS in the first place is the nearly endless demand for software. It does not matter how horrible your software is, as long as it kind of does something, there is a demand for it. And all AI can do is satisfy this "demand" for small scale, broken and unmaintainable software. Everything that is a bit more sofisticated needs a human software developer.
Will this change in 7 years? Maybe, but not because of the current AIs since they have plateuaued. All we do is increase training massively or let the models run on stronger/more hardware for "better" results. Both of these ways increase costs massively but "result" improvements are marginal.
So unless there is a big new technological discovery, which can happen in any field at any time, AI will not replace software development jobs.
This just isn't true anymore. AI coding capability at the top end has made a real qualitative leap in just the last 6 months or so and is actually very good at writing high quality code, if managed correctly.
I was extremely sceptical about it until recently but the results are now becoming consistent enough that it can't be denied. Most of the devs I know (almost all AI sceptics to begin with) have come to the same conclusion.
edit: Downvotes without comment? If people disagree with me by all means point out where I'm wrong.