🇺🇸 Trump is sharing articles floating a US naval blockade of Iran, the "Venezuela playbook," after talks fail. Here's what that would actually look like.

The idea is the US Navy takes control of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island strangling Iran's economy while cutting China and India off from their key oil source simultaneously.

The problem: Iran is not Venezuela.

🔸 The strait is only 33km wide at its narrowest point, every ship that enters is within range of Iran's entire coastal arsenal.
🔸 Iran's Khalij Fars anti-ship ballistic missiles have a 300km range and are designed specifically to hit moving ships at sea.
🔸 Noor and Qader cruise missiles, fired from mobile launchers hidden in coastal caves, cover the entire strait from the Iranian shoreline.
🔸 Iran has an estimated 5,000-6,000 naval mines — including influence mines that sit on the seabed and are nearly impossible to detect.
🔸 IRGC fast attack swarm boats are designed specifically to overwhelm US destroyers in confined waters — a classified DoD war game found the US lost 16 major warships including a carrier to Iranian swarm tactics.
🔸 Iran controls three fortified island outposts (Larak, Qeshm and Abu Musa) sitting directly on the shipping lanes, each with underground bunkers and missile batteries.

Iran doesn't even need to win a naval battle, FPRI experts note Iran is running an "insurance blockade," it only needs to strike occasionally to make insurance uneconomical for commercial shipping. That alone shuts the strait down.

Mine clearance in a contested environment takes a minimum of 4 weeks, and the US has decommissioned most of its dedicated minesweepers in CENTCOM. In 1991 it took 40 ships four months to clear Iraqi minefields in a permissive environment.

Meanwhile the USS Gerald R. Ford, cited in the article as leading the blockade, is currently in Split, Croatia being repaired after Iranian strikes. The USS George H.W. Bush is en route as replacement.

Trump may be out-blockaded before the blockade even starts.

Source -> https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/181725

[–] PumpkinFactory@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 4 days ago

It was said that by the end of WWII, the average ordinary warship above the class of a destroyer is practically impossible to sink. Time to prove that wrong!

[–] Razia@lemmygrad.ml 9 points 4 days ago

That sort of blockade would definitely not work for the reasons provided. What they could do however, is hunt down ships shipping oil from Iran and shipping items to Iran from further away than Iranian drones and missiles can target.

The problem with this is that it will further exacerbate the global energy crisis and piss off multiple countries benefiting from Iran's exports. Iran can also respond to this kind of blockade with strikes on US and US allies assets elsewhere to inflict harm, while continuing to keep hormuz closed. That's assuming China, Russia or another country doesn't apply pressure or send its own ships to help transport Iranian oil and trade, which the US could not target without it being an act of war it can't afford.

So this is really not a good option from multiple angles.

[–] 201dberg@lemmygrad.ml 5 points 3 days ago

Then try it. If you think it's such a good idea then try the fucking blockade. In fact, get so desperate to do it you pull ships away from Venezuela and Cuba while you are at it. Come on you fucking coward.

[–] Ronin_5@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

If they are able to control the strait, then they are also able to take the coast. So this is a pipe dream

As of now, any attempt at letting ships even close are deterred.