cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/44300432
this post was submitted on 15 Mar 2026
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It's seriously looking like both Cold War powers will be caught in a terminal forever war, that they refuse to call a war, at the same time but for different reasons.
I almost forgot this is the joke timeline for a moment there.
Nah, war with Iran can't last any real length of time, America would collapse first. Maybe if their allies were on board and enemies not actively working with Iran.
Think about this, the oil markets skyrocketed in overnight trading and were on track to skyrocket on March 9th before Trump admin lied about escorting a tanker and then later Europe announces its going to release 400M Barrel emergency release and then the US announces 172M barrel release. If those 20M barrels aren't getting through each day that's 29 days of time before the market goes to the moon. It's already been 3 weeks.
There is no way this lasts as long as Russo-Ukraine has so far. I would be shocked if it lasted longer than six months and I anticipate it to be basically over in 6 weeks with Iran giving some publicly dramatic but unsubstantial concessions and the Trump giving extremely huge substantial concessions, but hand-waving it away as the best for America. Like removing from all of the bases in the area and not enforcing what currency oil is traded in. Maybe they will compromise with some god forsaken crypto solution to settlement.
If it lasts longer than 6 weeks that means inflation the likes most Americans have never witnessed. Words like impeachment and criminal trials will start to become a lot more common when gas goes to $10 a gallon and a banana is $5.
You're not wrong. The same is true for Russia's economy, though - they've been burning the economic furniture to keep consumer prices in the same place and expand their military. The regime doesn't look like they're confident they can survive actual austerity when it hits.
The real difference is that the US is more likely to survive giving up, at least in the short term. As broken and ossified as their system of power is, it's also well-defined and has over two centuries of ontological momentum behind it.
I guess "terminal forever war" is a bit of an oxymoron, even if people get what I mean.