this post was submitted on 10 Mar 2026
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Does Iran actually have the capability to close the Strait though? I thought every naval asset they have has been flattened.
Trade ships will redirect at even the threat of being met with any confrontation. It is not worth the risk. Iran doesn't need a Navy to do this either. They need a couple dudes with AKs in a speedboat.
For more info. Just look at Yemen's blockade as an example.
Ships aren't gonna risk massive payloads. Insurance won't cover the loss either.
Oil tankers tend to be a pretty risk-averse group. They're not going to risk getting hit and having their multi-million dollar cargo go up in flames, even if the risk of getting hit while transiting the strait is relatively low.
Iran can close the straight with like 2 dudes with RPGs.
Considering it has signficantly affected oil prices. Yes.
A large amount of ships are currently stuck in the persian gulf. A significant portion of this is because they do not want to take the risk. The threat is enough to be effective but Iran is also enforcing it.
It’s already closed. The threat and the resulting insurance pull is all that’s needed. https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/actuarial-warfare-how-seven-insurance
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/greek-operated-tanker-with-saudi-oil-cargo-sails-through-hormuz-ship-tracking-2026-03-09/
Someone called their bluff.
Greece got through https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/greek-operated-tanker-with-saudi-oil-cargo-sails-through-hormuz-ship-tracking-2026-03-09/
I've been wondering the same thing.
It's a baller thing to say. But if they've lost air superiority (or even if it's compromised) then it doesn't mean much.
I read somewhere that Iran can close the strait without a full-scale naval engagement using selective drone strikes and harassing vessels, Iran triggers a spike in maritime insurance premiums which will choke shipping companies. Also because of the narrow width of the strait, also shallow, Iran can use mines, they have both simple contact mines to sophisticated "smart" mines, apparently they possesses one of the largest naval mine inventories in the world.
Those are fair points. They don't need to block all targeted traffic. They just have to be enough of a threat/pain in the ass for transportation and insurance rates to go up to an uncomfortable level. It's all about threat and perception.
Sure, the US air force and navy could bomb the shit out of their artillery placements. But given how (relatively) cheap and effective drones are, that might not be as effective as it seems at first.
They're a petrostate with a hopelessly outdated air force, the US or any other developed country can destroy their infrastructure at their leisure and bring their economy to it's knees. Which they would happily do if Iran sinks a vessel flagged in their waters.
They also need a working vessel to lay those mines.
You realize that threats like this don't work AFTER you already did it, right?
There will be something they haven't hit yet.
It's not really baller if everyone just ignores them, and joins a US led convoy through the Strait.
Neat, the US taxpayers are going to spend billions of dollars to escort oil for the Arabs. All in order to reduce the value of America's own oil exports. How likely do you think that is?