See the Qatari energy chief's statements yesterday: https://hexbear.net/post/7875589
Locally fuel prices have shot up before any of the actual consequences of the shipping disruption have begun, and I'm temporarily shielded from the real initial shock by domestic production. The 1973 Oil Crisis was a big contributor to cars becoming more efficient and EV technology being re-adopted. My city's bike trail network began construction in response to how many people switched to cycling after it. That initial network, which is much cheaper and faster to construct and easier to maintain than a road, induced demand for a whole socioecological shift in the city's development. Intact concrete panels from the 1980s wind along protected waterways and high-density housing, cleared of snow within hours of a storm by a single pickup truck, with everyone of every age being able to birdwatch in native habitat for free.
Even with the price of electricity increasing for AI slop, I'll pay around $20 to replace 99% of my urban driving this year. Anything within 80km is achievable with the current batteries and those are rapidly advancing, especially in terms of fire safety and recharge time. The experience is the complete opposite of everything I hate about driving. As a tech, it's poised for a Ford Model T moment of mass adoption that we started seeing with COVID. Most of the parts are there and they're waiting on economies of scale to make it into cheaper bikes more than they are new developments.
I think/hope/Timmy-pray that this will be the generational shock in oil and natural gas markets that break people out of car brain. Even if I wanted to trade in my car for an EV to avoid the fuel shortages/prices, the broader economic collapse makes that a pipe dream. People can at least afford something that costs 1/5th-1/10th of what a reliable used car does, and I think this might spiral into a crisis catastrophic enough to spur mass advocacy for the initial bike infrastructure in the places lacking it.
Otherwise I agree with the demons doing it that the war is apocalyptic, but it'd be nice if this is the big one for bicyclists. We might get barriers and happy neighbours.
They're in a weird gap between the two kinds of roads. On my paved multiuse trails, I feel safe riding a Class 2 bike that maxes out at 32kmh. That's also what I'd lock urban riding to generally if I was Ebike Stalin. I can stop quickly from the max speed if needed, or slow to a crawl for others without risking anyone behind me or causing a traffic jam. My moral standard for my commute is that I don't want to scare a dog, baby, or bird which I'm able to meet on existing bike infrastructure.
But that's also too narrow in the way that roads are too wide for them. Ideally the multiuse path would be the size of 1-1.5 road lanes or 4-6 sidewalks. Especially at any speed higher than 15kmh, I want to be able to maintain a 2m distance from anything else on the trail. That would be enough to safely make any adjustment at any speed, or to travel at a class 3 45kmh on an empty trail. It'd also be wide enough for emergency vehicle access with some buffer room.
25kph is the cap for an ebike to be considered a bicycle here and that seems reasonable to me. I think going just that extra ~5 would be better though.
I'm a big believer in "slow is smooth and smooth is fast". 25kmh is the normal max speed I'll pass someone at, usually 10kmh~. I only like the additional max speed because it averages out to the same driving time as my car when I can avoid stoplights.
Yeah I rode a friend's it was alright in downtown 25 mph zones and stop and go traffic. Still felt unsafe with how many cars were sharing the area with me