this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2026
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I see this come up a lot in discussions about voting in America. Postal votes disproportionately go to Democrats, hence the Democrats want to expand postal voting while Republicans want to restrict it (and insist there is totally a bunch of fraud going on).

I've googled with a few search engines and haven't found a convincing reason. Lots of evidence that the skew is real, but no explanation as to why. Indeed, if one just looks at demographics, one would expect postal voting to benefit Republicans by facilitating votes from people in the countryside who live far away from voting centers.

So what actually gives?

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[–] ChokingHazard@lemmy.world 19 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Because democrat voters out number Republican voters. If you increase the votes you increase the democrat votes by nature of increasing the number of votes collected. This isn’t factoring secondaries like demographics.

[–] StupidBrotherInLaw@lemmy.world 1 points 16 hours ago (3 children)

This explanation doesn't make sense mathematically, though. If the ratio of Democrat to Republican voters is fairly consistent amongst groups, increasing the number of people in any given group that votes will result in that same ratio, just with greater numbers. Saying otherwise is like saying you can add 2% milk to 2% milk to eventually get back to whole milk

The only way voting by mail helps Democrats is if the vote by mail crowd has a heavier democratic skew.

[–] jacksilver@lemmy.world 8 points 12 hours ago (1 children)

Except when you add in the element of access to voting. Voting in-person on a work day isn't necessarily feasible for the average American. By enforcing in-person voting you disenfranchise the groups that are more heavily democratic (younger, working, lower/middle class).

[–] StupidBrotherInLaw@lemmy.world 2 points 8 hours ago

That makes sense. I'm not an American but lived in the country for a number of years, so I understand some but not much of the culture.

[–] yakko@feddit.uk 7 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

Republicans are fewer in number but far more reliable voters.

[–] Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world 1 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

Brainwashed people do be like "Yes master" without fail.

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 1 points 3 hours ago

and dems are propagandized to "votes dont matter, or it doesnt affect you now"

[–] yakko@feddit.uk 1 points 5 hours ago

You mustn't consider them brainwashed, the habits of an authoritarian follower are closer to a personality type. They just really enjoy reducing themselves and the whole of society in this manner

[–] ChokingHazard@lemmy.world 3 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

If fewer people vote, it often favors the republicans. When more people vote it goes the other way. If it’s 60:40 and 100 people vote that’s 20 people. If it’s a thousand it’s 200 more people. I have a strong suspicion that the Republican party has been cheating for a long time which is why they claim the democrats have to be when they win. They always tell on themselves.

[–] StupidBrotherInLaw@lemmy.world 0 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (1 children)

Let me show you an example. Let's use easy ratios for easy numbers, so let's say people vote Democrat to Republican 3:2.

If you have 100 people vote, you'll end up with 60 democratic votes, 40 Republican.

If you have 200 people vote, you'll have 120 Democrat votes, 80 Republican.

Increasing the number of total voters in this scenario will never change the outcome. 400 people? 240 to 160.

The only way getting more votes by mail will help Democrats win an election is if the ratio of Democrat to Republican voters is higher in mail-in voters compared to other population groups.

Or are you suggesting Democrats are less reliable voters, so getting them to vote increases the relative percentage of Democrat voters?

[–] ChokingHazard@lemmy.world 5 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

That’s exactly what I’m suggesting.

[–] StupidBrotherInLaw@lemmy.world 1 points 14 hours ago

I now understand and agree completely!