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SUMO: looking forward to the last day of the January 2026 tourney!!! (spoilers in comments) (media.piefed.social)

submitted 4 days ago by Sergio@piefed.social to c/sumo@lemmy.world

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Like I was saying, spoilers in comments... The image is from back in the first day...

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[–] Sergio@piefed.social 2 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

WAU so if I understand it correctly, current standings are:

3-losses: Aonishiki, Atamifuji  
4-losses: Onosato, Kirishima, Abi, Oshoumi.

and last-day matchups are:

Kotozakura vs Aonishiki  
Oshoumi vs Atamifuji  
Hoshoryu vs Onosato  
Kirishima vs Abi

so in terms of outcomes looks like we have a 4-bit binary number, right?

click here to see all possibilities

Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs    Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE  
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN

so we can partition this up into a couple different scenarios:

Scenario 1: Aonishiki Wins and Atamifuji Loses: In this case, Aonishiki is the champion.

Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN

Scenario 2: Atamifuji Wins and Aonishiki Loses: In this case, Atamifuji is the champion.

Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN

Scenario 3: Both Atamifuji and Aonishiki Win: In this case, Atamifuji and Aonishiki battle each other in a playoff.

Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura LOSE vs Aonishiki WIN , Oshoumi LOSE vs Atamifuji WIN , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN

Scenario 4: Aonishiki and Atamifuji Lose, Onosato Loses: In the remaining scenarios, Oshoumi wins, because he was fighting Atamifuji (who loses in the remaining scenarios). If Onosato loses, then we have a 3-way tie between Aonishiki, Atamifuji, and the winner of Kirishima vs Abi, to be resolved with a series of play-offs.

Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu WIN vs Onosato LOSE , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN

Scenario 5: Aonishiki and Atamifuji Lose, Onosato Wins: And in this last scenario, Onosato wins and we have a FOUR way play-off between Aonishiki, Atamifuji, (e: and Onosato) and the winner of Kirishima vs Abi. MAXIMUM SUMO EXCITEMENT!!!

Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima WIN vs Abi LOSE
Kotozakura WIN vs Aonishiki LOSE , Oshoumi WIN vs Atamifuji LOSE , Hoshoryu LOSE vs Onosato WIN , Kirishima LOSE vs Abi WIN

[–] not_woody_shaw@lemmy.world 3 points 4 days ago (1 children)

He did the math.

[–] Sergio@piefed.social 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

What's also interesting is the ordering of the championship-relevant bouts:

Oshoumi vs Atamifuji: this is the first relevant bout.
- IF Atamifuji wins, then there will be either 1 or 0 playoffs (depending on how Aonishiki does).
- IF Atamifuji loses, either Aonishiki will be champion, or there will be a 4 or 5 bout playoff. (see below).
then there are 8 non-championship-relevant bouts (including my faves Shishi, Ura, and Takayasu). Of interest here: Oshoma vs Yoshinofuji, and Onokatsu vs Wakamotoharu, all of which are at 7-7, so this will determine which two of the four get their kashi-koshi (more wins than losses).
Kirishima vs Abi: this is the next championship-relevant bout. This tells us: IF there is a 4 or 5-person playoff, which of these two will take part in it. If Atamifuji won, then this bout is not championship-relevant.
Kotozakura vs Aonishiki: This is the big one of the night.
- IF Aonishiki wins AND Atamifuji lost, then Aonishiki is champion
- IF Aonishiki wins AND Atamifuji won, then there will be a 2-person playoff
- IF Aonishiki loses AND Atamifuji won, then Atamifuji is champion
- IF Aonishiki loses AND Atamifuji lost, then there will be either a 4- or 5- person playoff
Hoshoryu vs Onosato: IF Aonishiki AND Atamifuji both lost, then there will be a multi-person playoff. This will determine whether it's a 5-person playoff (if Onosato wins) or a 4-person playoff (if Onosato loses). Otherwise, it's not championship-relevant.

A NIGHT OF HYPE!!! idk about y'all, but I'm planning on staying up.

[–] not_woody_shaw@lemmy.world 2 points 4 days ago

The hype is real.