stupidpol

Yes, I also believe it is certain that he will start a war. However, I think he will attack Cuba.

On the one hand, because it will not cost US billionaires any valuable trade relations, and on the other hand, because it will at least appeal to the complete idiots among US citizens, as anti-Cuba propaganda has been going on for decades. The kidnapping of Maduro (Venezuela was one of Cuba's most important oil suppliers) speaks for this, as does the fact that the orange dictator would be celebrated for achieving with his irresponsible policy of violence what many presidents before him have failed to do: the invasion of Cuba, which may have little real political significance, but is highly symbolic.

I therefore consider it much more likely that he intends to symbolically reinforce US dominance in South America through an invasion of Cuba (which would, of course, be completely contrary to international law as well).

For the moment, however, he needs a distraction from all his domestic problems, and empty threats against the EU are the means of choice: on the one hand, he shows his own people that their opinion is irrelevant in his calculations, which is conducive to his autocratic ambitions. On the other hand, the fear this creates among both citizens and the business community (which has close ties to the EU) allows him to distract attention from how completely hollowed out the US legal system has become. The point is to make it clear that there is no law other than what the regime wants - this has an impact on both citizens and the wealthy businesspeople who actually control the country. The message is quite simple: either you bow to the power of despotism, or you are enemies.

It is a the playbook of modern fascism, which, led by the US, is now spreading in many countries around the world.

For this reason alone, it would be desirable for US citizens to rise up against all the horrible injustice in their own country, but here too, we should remain realistic: this is about as likely as the US regime publishing the Epstein files, i.e., impossible.