The evidence seems to be Russia advances a lot of troops in bad weather when drones don't work well - but a single clear day allows the drones to clear them out. Ukraine also seems to be giving up territory when Russia masses lots of troops - but Russia then overextends and Ukraine comes back over the next months and clears them all out.

Back in 2024 is was predicted that 2025 would be a hard year for Ukraine as Russia still had plenty of old equipment to work with, while Europe was still gearing up industry - then 2026 would be much better as Russia runs out of old equipment while Europe completes gearing up industry and starts producing. It is still early, but we seem to be seeing the start of that play out: Ukraine isn't winning yet, but they are acting like they have more equipment, while Russia is conserving what they have left.

[–] thebestaquaman@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

That makes sense, thanks! I've noticed that there have been a couple slow days lately, which backs up the explanation.

Regarding equipment, we've definitely seen russia dig progressively deeper into stockpiles to drag out progressively older equipment. I can't imagine it will get better for them, as we've actually started seeing a decrease in the amount of destroyed artillery that could be indicating the environment isn't as target-rich as it was a year ago.