this post was submitted on 21 Dec 2025
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Welp, time to make a straw doll of Sam Altman and start sticking it with pins. This bubble is taking way too long to burst.
Re: bubbles... People were calling BTC a bubble and it needing to burst in 2013. 13 years ago.
This is all propped up by growth though. The moment Microsoft mentions skipping a product cycle is when investors panic and rotate into staples or whatever, Nvidia cuts production targets, Micron suddenly has ICs for other things
Specifically, it's propped up by the growth of wealth inequality. Money is going less to poor people who need it for food and rent, and more to rich people who gamble on speculative bubbles. As long as they can afford to pump more money in, the bubble can continue.
Micron just taking the money that they can, it's their progative. My point is that don't necessarily wait around hoping for a burst, even if things look super frothy and bubbly. This is also propped up by speculation, which Bitcoin was too.
The valuation of these companies are based on absurd compounding growth but growth goes from darling to pariah the moment cash dries up, every time. Taper tantrums and Brexit era, it's sometimes the knee-jerk reaction, even. 2021, people were trading based on yields and unemployment data and bad numbers were making tech stocks rise in hopes of rate cuts. Securities is an entirely different beast than bitcoin because stocks have intrinsic value (and if you have faith in the forward earnings of a company that's intrinsic enough)
While I get your sentiment, AI is different. They are making significant investments into hardware and real estate hoping to turn that into improvements of their models at significant cost. It is however only based on hopes and dreams that those will be realized. They are bleeding money for it and did not seem likely to reach break even ever.