this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2025
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@nesc
Afghan war was not deeply unpopular during its first 2 or 3 years. On its 10th year it was. Extremely. And now 75 times as many (in proportion) Russians are dying per decade as back then.
There's no way the Russian populace will put up with that if they need to move to conscription.
The Afghan war was too much for them. This is is as big as 75 Afghan wars at once.
The Russia will probably not fall, but they will 100% surely lose their ability to fight a large-scale war such as this.
Short term? If they 'lose' as in freeze the war not on their maximalist terms, yes. If they will get full ukranian capitulation (as it is being forced right now) they will go for another run in 5 years at best.
@nesc
Sorry, I do not understand what you are referring to. "Yes" to what?
Your point about popular uprising.