this post was submitted on 12 Nov 2025
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I dunno. How do you figure that it will tear it all apart instead of just another bailout?
Even a bailout will be disastrous because it translates into another wealth transfer to the top. Each time this happens regular working class people end up getting pushed further towards the edge. When 2008 crash happens, people still had savings and a large chunk of the population could absorb the crisis. This time around most of the public is on much thinner margins, and the crash will be far more severe. If the consumption collapses in the US, the whole economy is going to come apart.
Good point. So to the best of your knowledge, what will happen and when?
Seems like it could be soon given that OpenAI is now openly angling for a bailout. The investors seem to be increasingly getting cold feet, so we could see a market panic sometime next year which would lead to the subsidies and bailouts. I've been wrong before though, and maybe they'll manage to kick the can further down the road somehow. I just can't see what options they have left at this point.
I think with orange pedo at the helm nothing is predictable at this point. Could be that he murders mamdani or that he gets jfked to hide the burst of the bubble. There are so many ways this could go.
Only one thing i'm certain of: ukraine is going down. Maybe venezuela war, maybe not. Maybe anexation of palestine, etc. So many avenues.
I'd argue more broadly we can be sure that the west has now entered terminal decline, and we're going to see a geopolitical realignment towards China going forward. There might be dying gasps like an attack on Venezuela or Iran, but none of that is going to arrest the decline or reverse it.
Yeah, that makes sense. I do agree that decline is getting more overt and i dont think it is reversable either but I dont know if it is as fast as it looks or if it will be a perpetual slow trainwreck like in britain where they starve their population, sabre rattle towards ireland and otherwise keep still as much as possible. For germany this would mean long lines at food banks, strong identification with israel and more police presence on the streets, maybe even outlawing of protests or curfew as with covid. I can see that happening. Germany always was a little more authoritarian than the rest while pointing fingers at erdogan.
Personally, I expect that things will keep getting worse in the west for a while yet. And material conditions for the vassals will be worse than in the core because the US will be sucking the life out of Europe, Japan, and occupied Korea to prop up its own economy. We're already seeing this happening with the "deals" that Trump rammed through. That all might lead to revolutionary conditions, but seems like that's quite far away at this point. Naked fascism seems like the most likely next stage to me.