this post was submitted on 20 Sep 2025
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[–] WoodScientist@lemmy.world 4 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

Oh Jesus H Christ. Is this what the military buildup off of Venezuela is about?

The US doesn't seem to be readying to actually occupy large swathes of Venezuela, but what if the intention was simply to seize a beachhead, and never expand beyond it? They could be planning to:

  1. Find some isolated patch of Venezuelan coast that is lightly defended but still near transportation links such as highways. Ideally something with a half decent harbor.
  2. Invade the coast. Invade only as far inland as to secure space for air strips and a defense perimeter. Maybe this involves seizing a small regional port city.
  3. Declare publicly that the US has seized a temporary immigration enforcement beachhead, that they intend to go no further inland, and that US forces will still vigorously defend themselves if fired upon.
  4. When and if things calm down, they start flying Venezuelan deportees into the beachhead and forcibly frog-marching them across the border into Venezuelan territory.
  5. The Venezuelan government then has a choice: a) accept and help its citizens dumped into a remote area or b) watch as its own people die of exposure to the elements on Venezuelan soil.

This would basically be a method of forcing the Venezuelan government to accept repatriation of Venezuelan immigrants from the US. The Venezuelan government would be forced to choose between escalating to a shooting war it knows it cannot win, or to provide assistance to those forced across the border. Realistically, they would choose the latter. They really wouldn't have the option of just letting their own citizens die of exposure in some remote stretch of coast. Even if the government did nothing, private organizations would spring up to help people.

Right now Venezuela is refusing to cooperate, so the US is stuck holding the Venezuelans it rounds up in expensive long term detention. This would be a way for the US to force the Venezuelan government to accept repatriation, whether they wanted to or not.

[–] PhilipTheBucket@piefed.social 4 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

Honestly that sounds like more work than Trump or the current crew of leadership wants to do. I think what they're planning is more likely to be just to keep blowing up fishing boats and blustering until (a) Venezuela caves or (b) they get distracted and just abandon the effort for some other equally pointless and violent activity.

[–] WoodScientist@lemmy.world 6 points 2 weeks ago

Honestly, a good summary of the second Trump term will be simply "an equally pointless and violent activity."

[–] JeremyHuntQW12@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

Venezuela cannot "cave".
It is completely dependent on oil revenue. When the US backed opposition in Venezuala said they would not give away the oil industry in the last election, the US abandoned them and had their supporters in the US deported.

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