this post was submitted on 17 Sep 2025
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It's not just the chips that keeps NVIDIA ahead, it's the 20ish years of optimizing their software across every industry.
Exactly right! This why China is banning the chips. They caught up in hardware and now need to catch up in software. If they continue to allow people to use NVIDIA chips, then their software will never progress as they won't have users to optimize them.
Huwei and SMIC are iterating too fast. As they get good enough yields on current/last generation, they move up/announce new generations that freeze a bit of demand. I think they are doing this to get good pricing for SMIC and local designs. It doesn't help that all the Trump sycophants are calling him brilliant for enslaving China to "NVIDIA's 4th best chips and software stack".
Probably. It's hard to say since so much is behind the veil. In fact it's likely China has its own DUV lithography supply. US estimates on what China can produced based on number of asml units sold is wildly wrong.