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DeepMind's GenCast AI is really good at forecasting the weather
(www.engadget.com)
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this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2024
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You're better off looking at QPFs than regular forecasts.
But, if you're wanting something like "will there be rain at this GPS coordinate at this time", then under some conditions that is just impossible to predict. It's not a problem with the how clever the models are or a lack of data, the physics makes it legitimately random.
Ensemble forecasts are better yet, but you need to learn what they mean before using them. Not many people understand how to interpret probabilistic forecast data.
I thought QPFs are generated from ensemble forecasts?