Just seems like a reversion to the mean. The odds swung too far to Harris and it's getting corrected now. Not really anything to pay attention to

Winning side 🤔

Edit: misread lol, yeah Russia absolutely is winning

What the hell, she's based?!

I agree. I am mainly critiquing your graph. You are showing the losses, which are large and look scary. But you're not showing the context of how large the past profits have been.

And even in a world where the Fed is making profits by exchanging short duration for long, they are still providing a huge subsidy to the financial system. So it's not accurate to say these recent losses are a measure of the subsidy to financial institutions. It just feels like the dumb RRP graphs you see on superstonk

Another quibble, QT is when the Fed does not reinvest the principal of maturing assets. As far as I know, they are not selling any assets (unless they started selling MBS?). So they do not have to book the loss of value, but their expenses are now higher than their interest income

The Fed controls when they make a profit again, since they set the federal funds rate. When they lower that rate below a level that is straightforward to calculate, they will make a profit. It is incredibly easy for the Fed to earn a (long-term) profit since they issue the currency and earn seigniorage

This graph does not show all remittances. It shows the negative remittances that are held on the balance sheet as a liability, meaning that the Fed will pay back the government when they start making a profit again. Positive remittances are not held on balance sheet, they are paid to the Treasury immediately. The positive values in your graph is "capital", which is basically unrelated

This document shows Fed remittances over time, which have been substantial. See figure 2 https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/nov/fed-remittances-treasury-explaining-deferred-asset

It's funny

Except Trump lol

Anyone who buys now is a bag holder. Do not throw away your money

Iran:

Germany? 🤔