51
I mean, it wasn't that long ago that we had an epidemic and a huge amount of people just straight up refused to believe it was real.
People wouldn't quarantine and it would never actually go away.
It's totally unfair to judge humanity on just one pandemic when people refuse to wear masks and quarantine. We should also look at the 1918 pandemic.
True, that's two pandemics when people refused to wear masks and quarantine. Makes for much better data to include that. Thanks!
Wait…
We’re not talking about the 200o’s outbreak in Asia (which had human infections, though only sporadically)
No, definitely people wouldnt quarantine like that. But, H5N1 can have a really high mortality rate. From what I can tell, a near 100%. for birds and some marine mammals. I.e. every animal that catches it, dies.
Not to be macabre, but I don't mean how long would people have to quarantine to beat back the virus. Im asking how long would an individual have to hide from everyone else, before everyone else, who refused to believe it was real, and whatnot, caught the virus and just...died.
Mortality rate has an inverse correlation to infection rate. So I would guess a really long time. Depending on infection vectors, maybe it could burn through dense population centers quickly. But anywhere rural it could come by whenever, it would be impossible to predict.
Well, you can't know until it happens. And even then it will mutate like covid did, so it could keep changing. And what it does in other animals doesn't map to what it will do in humans most likely. Worst case scenario would be a long incubation time, followed by a long symptom free contagious period, followed by a very short sick time before death. But death isn't all that advantageous for the virus.
If the government provides living expenses, as long as it takes. If it provides less than one month's living expenses over an 18 month period, you don't need to quarantine at all, dying will be cheaper.
What do you mean "come out?" I became a germophobic shut-in in 2020 and little's changed since then.
We killed off one strain of flu by our less-than-perfect quarantining for COVID. If we mask up for Texas Moo Flu, we'd stop spreading COVID around so much and might slow down its mutation too. At least with flu we know how it's transmitted, and have related vaccines to tweak. Maybe we'll be able to call off the Return To Workplace bullshit, too.
We killed off one strain of flu by our less-than-perfect quarantining for COVID.
We did? Do you have more information on that?
That article is interesting and important but it does not show any causal links between lockdowns and the disappearance.
It is, for example, also possible that it was merely displaced by SARS-CoV2.
I appreciate your close and literal reading of that study. This was new news to me so I looked a bit further. STATnews and others seem to think it was the various lockdown protocols.
No, they've got the same information as us. That's why they explicitly say:
when Covid pandemic lockdowns and social distancing appeared to have halted circulation
It is still speculation, not data.
I'd tend to agree with the speculation but it's still speculation.
To be honest, I agree with you that it is speculation, and also that I tend to agree with the speculation. It's important to note when something is speculative.
It wasn't the lockdown as much as the masking and hand washing, and especially having sick people self-isolate while they had symptoms.
I consider those measures to be included in "lockdown" but it's besides the point: The paper contains no evidence that those measures made it disappear, just that it disappeared.
How would it be displaced by SARS-CoV2? Wouldn't that require cross immunity?
That's pretty cool! I knew we didn't really have a flu season, but I didn't realize we actually killed off a while strain. Not for nothing, I guess.
You do have a point though, we have an existing vaccine and we are more knowledgeable about the flu in general. Maybe there would be more surviviors than one would anticipate. As long as the scientists didn't dont get infected and die before they could get the vaccine out.
When birds catch the bird flu, there can be up to 100% mortality rate. So, I suppose I'm more refering to a catastrophic, civilization altering illness. More akin the what a zombie virus would do, without the added potential of reanimation.
I prefer Houstonian butt COVID
If everyone goes in lockdown a few weeks should suffice but that's the ideal scenario. Containment and immobility are the best ways to smother an outbreak.
It would be much longer, based on 2020. There's always idiots breaking quarantine.
COVID could have been eliminated if people stayed home for a couple of weeks in March/April 2020. Now COVID is permanent.
Exact. Quarantine only works when we all participate.
If the bird flu started spreading rapidly from human to human,
It does, sometimes. Doctors know. Laymen don't care.
and it devastated our population as it can in birds or marine life
It is less deadly for humans than for birds.
Are you asking for a friend?
Not this time.
Vaccine development would probably be quicker than the ones made for Covid as we already have vaccines for other strains of flu. Maybe up to a year?
The R number of flu is much lower than Covid so the waves of cases would rise and fall slower, leading to longer isolation periods during wave peaks. Masking and lockdowns would be more effective against flu so the political reality of implementing that would be a large factor in how it plays out.
Safe is relative. Do you go out right now? Do you trust your (assumed) covid vaccination to protect you?
Ask yourself what level of risk you're willing to accept. "I need a vaccine to be widely adopted" or "i need to be more likely to die/have complications from X other thing". Better yet, "If i get infected i'm this likely to spread the disease further". Your risk tolerance is never zero and neither is your risk to others.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t a decent number of strains of influenza originally from avian or porcine sources? I know we occasionally make big deals about bird flu or swine flu, but I was under the impression that lots of flu strains either originated with or pass cleanly between animal sources.
I guess it would depend on how deadly it was. Corona killed a million Americans and bodies were stacked outside hospitals like cordwood.
If it ended up being MORE dangerous than Corona, I'd guess most of the population would have thinned out in 8 to 10 months.
The fatality rate of avian influenza is about 55%, so a bit more deadly than corona (about 3%).
As long as the public health officials in your area tell you to.
But in the situation in imagining, they would all be dead. I'd be stuck there indefinitely!
But you do have a point. Im sure the public health officials in my area would tell everyone that there's nothing to worry about and to go get infected for fun. :/ guess I'd be the only one left, granted I stay inside long enough to outlive all the infected.
this post was submitted on 02 Apr 2024
51 points (88.1% liked)
No Stupid Questions
35694 readers
1170 users here now
No such thing. Ask away!
!nostupidquestions is a community dedicated to being helpful and answering each others' questions on various topics.
The rules for posting and commenting, besides the rules defined here for lemmy.world, are as follows:
Rules (interactive)
Rule 1- All posts must be legitimate questions. All post titles must include a question.
All posts must be legitimate questions, and all post titles must include a question. Questions that are joke or trolling questions, memes, song lyrics as title, etc. are not allowed here. See Rule 6 for all exceptions.
Rule 2- Your question subject cannot be illegal or NSFW material.
Your question subject cannot be illegal or NSFW material. You will be warned first, banned second.
Rule 3- Do not seek mental, medical and professional help here.
Do not seek mental, medical and professional help here. Breaking this rule will not get you or your post removed, but it will put you at risk, and possibly in danger.
Rule 4- No self promotion or upvote-farming of any kind.
That's it.
Rule 5- No baiting or sealioning or promoting an agenda.
Questions which, instead of being of an innocuous nature, are specifically intended (based on reports and in the opinion of our crack moderation team) to bait users into ideological wars on charged political topics will be removed and the authors warned - or banned - depending on severity.
Rule 6- Regarding META posts and joke questions.
Provided it is about the community itself, you may post non-question posts using the [META] tag on your post title.
On fridays, you are allowed to post meme and troll questions, on the condition that it's in text format only, and conforms with our other rules. These posts MUST include the [NSQ Friday] tag in their title.
If you post a serious question on friday and are looking only for legitimate answers, then please include the [Serious] tag on your post. Irrelevant replies will then be removed by moderators.
Rule 7- You can't intentionally annoy, mock, or harass other members.
If you intentionally annoy, mock, harass, or discriminate against any individual member, you will be removed.
Likewise, if you are a member, sympathiser or a resemblant of a movement that is known to largely hate, mock, discriminate against, and/or want to take lives of a group of people, and you were provably vocal about your hate, then you will be banned on sight.
Rule 8- All comments should try to stay relevant to their parent content.
Rule 9- Reposts from other platforms are not allowed.
Let everyone have their own content.
Rule 10- Majority of bots aren't allowed to participate here.
Credits
Our breathtaking icon was bestowed upon us by @Cevilia!
The greatest banner of all time: by @TheOneWithTheHair!
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS