That's not a bubble bursting. It's not nearly enough fallout. These are the warning signs.
this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2026
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Technology
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My ideal scenario:
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The AI bubble lasts a little bit longer, they put data centers in space.
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The bubble pops immediately after this, all the companies go broke and nobody maintains the satellites.
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Free PC components rain from the skies, I sit out on the roof surrounded by buckets catching RAM and SSDs.
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They're a bit scorched but I'll take what I can get.
- Data centers in space
- Overheat as there is no way to disperse heat in a vacuum
- AI companies go broke
- Can't maintain the useless space centers
- They crash and collide starting Kessler Syndrome
- We don't know who struck first, us or them, but we know that it was us that scorched the sky
I actually work in the space industry designing/building/testing satellites.
The answer is big fuggin radiators and perpetual night time sun synchronous orbit while the other vaporware/grifters trying to shill orbital power beaming blast your solar arrays with the power of a thousand suns every now and then.
There is math for it, and I have a fuck load of doubts, but people are funding this bullshit.
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So China has already gotten ahead of the US on AI...
Please please may all of this implodes and all tech giants go broke because people realize whe don't need them, we already have the fediverse and open-source softwares so can build a fair digital economy and get rid of the GAFAM and their friends.
That's not how bubbles popping works. If the bubble pops, AI is here forever. It's a bubble because there are more investors than there can be profit takers. The pop, is those investors losing money. But a TON of people that invested early, or make the product, become incredibly wealthy, and the companies that survive because household names for the next generation.
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They really are beating us at everything.
They did beat America in the race towards oppressive authoritarianism, but under Trump, the U.S. has caught up a great deal. So much winning!
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some context, first of all, the -40% collapse only brought the STAR50 index back to its March 2026 levels.
and the Chinese stock market is heavily moderated by the government which is very different from the US market. if the stock rallies too quickly, the government generally speaking will try to slow it down. Sometimes through explicit policies 1, sometimes through a kind of "scare tactic" 2. Conversely, when the stock drops too sharply, the government also intervenes to prop it up 3. Honestly I feel more countries should do the same.
The Chinese stock market is also much smaller relative to its GDP (101.5%) compared to the US (227%) 4. All this is to say, if you look at China and think, "huh, their AI bubble burst and they still seem to be fine?", think again. If and when the AI bubble bursts for the US, it's going to be much much worse.
US markets will halt trading for those same issues.
No! I wanna see CEOs and entire Boards jump out the window like in '29 dammit!
don't we all
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Point 3 is the Buffet Index. In 1929 and 2007 it was at 130%. Guess where that extra 100% comes from. AI companies and AI speculation. We are so fucked.
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Cheap GPUs when?
Probably not any time soon? China's buying 5090s in bulk to literally remove the chips and transplant them onto server form factor boards for AI.
The stocks crashed because there's so much competition now and nobody can expect to take the whole market. Deepseek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi are ALL way cheaper than the US counterparts and quite comparable. It's not exciting anymore. When Deepseek R1 came out, everyone thought that Deepseek was going to completely take everything over. Now pretty much everyone is getting close to Claude in performance.
I'm beginning to suspect never. The industry (read nvidia) got taste for selling stuff in bulk to those who don't care about price and/or quality. They don't want to return to the world where regular people (ew) were their primary source of income. They will find new scam to use their cards on.
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Never. Western capitalists will make Chinese hardware illegal before they allow cheaper goods to undercut their profits. It’s exactly what they’re doing in the auto industry, why should tech be different?
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Won't happen anytime soon. Even if AI bubble popped today, the companies that remain make AI a household name will still be scooping up chips for decades.
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China tech stocks are back to March this year, and AI stocks are still almost half their stock index.
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Interesting. I think this is the first time I've seen the word "bubble" explicitly acknowledged as a reality and not a question in a headline of a major news outlet.
So I searched for '"bubble" in the past month from Reuters, and found several headlines raising the concern, but none actually using the word "bubble", with the exception of one investors meeting in Singapore.
It seems that editors don't want to scare/anger Western investors with the truth, but the Asia news desk under no such burden.
Its been in the news, The Guardian has been calling it out…its even been called out on foxnews lol. There are others too dating back to beginning of the year too.
AI slowdown calls justified but collapse of bubble may be more immediate threat
AI bubble fears, rising treasury yields put tech stocks to the test
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Shh, you'll ruin the tech CEO's self delusions. They need that AI to forget about their past boondoggles. Like the metaverse and NFTs.
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Not even people there want to support this cray-cray ai trend no more, they just ahead of the curve huh.
Reuters blocks my VPN and the Wayback archived version doesn't display anything.
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