Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:
To learn about and discuss meaningful news, analysis and perspectives from around the world, with a focus on news outside the Anglosphere and beyond what is normally seen in corporate media (e.g. anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist, Marxist, Indigenous, LGBTQ, people of colour).
To encourage community members to contribute commentary and for others to thoughtfully engage with this material.
To support healthy and good faith discussion as comrades, sharpening our analytical skills and helping one another better understand geopolitics.
We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.
Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:
The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.
Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.
Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.
Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.
Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.
Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.
Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.
American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.
Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.
AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.
Image is a map of the approximate state of play of the military situation in Yemen, with the main focus being to cut off PLC access to Taizz (in the north of the salient). This map is from @bonzerbarry on Twitter (I would link to him directly but xcancel is down), who I recommend for coverage of the situation in the Middle East in general, and Yemen in particular.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As I said in last week's preamble, it remains comically unclear what's truly happening in the strait. The main data point supporting oil tanker movements in the Strait being sufficient for oil flows to be completely restored are a few "independent trackers" including the big kahuna, Kpler, reporting on mostly recovered oil flows. The main data points that contradict this are: 1) satellite evidence of increasing strikes on tankers by Iran, as well as Ansarallah strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure; 2) a 1000% increase in the cost to hire a supertanker out of Hormuz compared to pre-war; 3) elevated and/or rising crack spreads; 4) elevated and/or rising diesel and gas costs in various countries around the world; 5) the new 40M SPR release by the US and the EU emergency diesel release as they bend the knee to the threat by the US to ban diesel exports; 6) PetroChina banning October export cargos to try and prevent domestic supplies from falling further; 7) Russia maintaining their diesel export ban; 8) refineries in India and the US literally exploding from the overwork (and some are now being forced into ~month-long maintenance periods); and 9) bond yields continuing to skyrocket across the Western world to heights unseen since the 2008 Great Recession or even before. So who can truly say?
Anyway. Trump has threatened a return to striking Iran after the midterms, with the aircraft carrier out in the Pacific heading for West Asia (perhaps replacing the USS George Washington? I've gotten mixed news), as well as a new amphibious landing ship which is likely going to relieve the one already present in-theater. The H.W. Bush has been found all the way off in Thailand, meaning that either there will be two or even just one aircraft carrier in the region surrounding Iran soon. As stated by many people many times before, the capacity for large strikes equal to the one in early March no longer exists, with the Navy forced hundreds of miles further away than during the first half of the year in response to Iran's anti-ship missiles, and most bases in the region no longer safely operable with the ongoing interceptor famine. Trump has had trouble articulating exactly why a return to missile strikes would be necessary if Iran has indeed lost control of the Strait of Hormuz and if the blockade on Iran is working, with the only constant being the talismanic phrase "Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon." Araghchi recently remarked that Iran is prepared for a "doomsday war", which demonstrates that if Trump is bluffing to intimidate Iran, then it's just as unlikely to work as all the myriad other times. Iran is also dramatically expanding its number of battalions, and says they are advancing their missile technology to be able to hit targets further away, as well as moving targets at sea (a genuinely massive challenge for all militaries, not just Iran). The number of US troops soon to be in theater is an order of magnitude less than would be required to occupy a portion of Iranian territory for an extended period, and the threat to destroy the region's fossil fuel infrastructure if Iran's is hit is only more impactful now that global inventories have dwindled.
Ansarallah continues to make gains in their offensive, and are, as of me writing this, cutting off PLC access to the major city of Taiz, attacking the salient there from numerous directions, including both sides of the neck. The Saudi response to the rout of their mercenary groups in Yemen has been a lot of floundering. It's hard for me to personally say to what extent their airstrikes are effective, but it certainly hasn't stopped the advances, and Ansarallah's capacity to respond to them by destroying their critical infrastructure has put them in a major bind. They've recently unveiled a plan to the media to conduct an offensive to retake the Red Sea coast or even all of Ansarallah's territory, though everybody who's been watching the Ukraine War knows that preannouncing your offensives is a bad omen for their actual effectiveness. Not because your enemy will know you're coming, per se - they'd know regardless due to their intel of your mobilizations - but because it indicates that you care more about the optics of being seen to be "doing something soon" than actually conducting a well-planned and well-provisioned offensive. There's also reports that the Zionists are becoming increasingly involved in trying to help the Saudis repel Ansarallah, which is a telling indicator of the value of the recent Mecca Agreement.
As I mentioned in last week's preamble, Brazil's first round has come and gone, and my sense of foreboding was largely vindicated. Polls before the election described a tight race with Lula out in front by 1 or 2 percentage points; this was, incidentally, the same lead by which Lula defeated Bolsonaro 1.0 years ago. Exit polls described a similar state of play. The actual results were the reverse situation, with Bolsonaro 2.0 out in front by 1 or 2 percentage points (47% to 45%). This avoids the catastrophe of a first round victory for Bolsonaro, and the disaster of something unsalvageable like a 49-42 lead, but is still decidedly in the L column for Lula's chances without some major last-minute cavalry coming for the second round on October 25th. The impression I've gotten is that Lula's poor performance is due to the combination of the very recent corruption scandal as a short term influence, the general economic malaise caused by the economic shockwaves of the Iran War as a medium term influence, and the lukewarm social and economic development made during Lula's term as a long term influence. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, escaping the cycle of socdem-comprador-socdem-comprador is the challenge of the current era, particularly in Latin America, and especially when the US is retrenching into Latin America as they gradually withdraw or are kicked out of Afro-Eurasia.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Yemeni forces repelled another Saudi proxy attack in the southwestern Lahij province:
Meanwhile, Spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, said the country’s military units have confronted Saudi-sponsored mercenaries, as they attempted to advance in the southwestern province of Lahij along the coast of Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Saree noted that the Saudi-backed militiamen were forced to retreat for the second time within hours.
This disrupts roughly 10% of U.S. oil production but is unlikely to have any lasting impacts and the hurricane isn't expected to hit any major oil hubs.
Storm surges of nine feet expected, as well as up to fifteen inches of rain in the hardest-hit areas.
For reference, Hurricane Sally hit the Florida panhandle as a category 2 in 2020 and caused around $8 billion in damages.
excited to see what coastal communities get absolutely obliterated and subsequently abandoned by the federal government this time around. maybe excited is the wrong word. something more bleak should be there, I think.
Lots of C17s transport planes were moving towards the ME over the last few days. Iran is moving some schools in coastal areas to remote learning tomorrow. It looks like they are switching to max readiness for strikes.
Something like this has happened previously with no US attacks, but now US attacks are more likely because of all the tankers that Iran has hit recently.
I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
In other words, the US unilaterally lifts their sanctions on Russian diesel out of desperation. Some commentators are making this out to be something it isn't. Obviously Trump is going to paint it as a massive win that mostly benefits the US.
It's not even clear from this if Russia must specifically sell some amount of diesel to the US, instead of the "Global Marketplace."
That's funny af.
Earlier: Russia has no diesel because Ukraine has destroyed all refineries. Slobber Ukraini!
Now: Putin, please, we fucked up a war and wrecked the planets diesel supply - we'll very briefly lift sanctions and buy your entire excess production.
Desperately lifting sanctions on Russian oil really makes me believe 'the strait is open' lmao
There were charts and graphs! It has to be open!
The US could ban the EU from buying Russian diesel while importing Russian diesel for themselves and the EU would still thank Trump for it anyway. IIRC, the US kept importing Russian uranium for years after imposing sanctions on everyone else, because they didn't have a cheap alternative.
[edit] the amount of diesel exports mentioned seems to be around ~0.12 mb of diesel per day, the exact amount Russia is already currently exporting. It looks like Trump just wants the US to be able to compete for these barrels by removing restrictions.
Hilarious that the EU blew up their own connection to Russia's gas too at the behest of their American overlords. Literally the most cucked set of nations on earth
super cucked, but the most cucked? I mean Jordan, Syria, and the GCC still exist
I think we're gonna need a bigger chair
honestly, going to need an entire stadium row at this point
cuck commentator's table?
Panama was hit by an earthquake, USGS just upgraded it to ~~an 8.0~~ now revised to 7.7 from the initial 7.5 level. The Venezuela earthquake earlier this year was a 7.5, for comparison. Earthquake depth and location can mean a big difference between not that big a deal and total devastation.
what is going on with these south american earthquakes
CIA’s earthquake satellites have been working overdrive 
Simplest answer is most likely domino effect given their similar magnitudes and proximity.
Bad dice rolls exacerbated by insufficient earthquake mitigation systems.
Seems it was surface level, making it worse. And also Panama is a tiny country. This could be devastating
Strong aftershocks are spread across the whole edge.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000u18k/pager
If any consolation PAGER on the quakes are suggesting a lowish population exposure. Damage of the main quake up to 10% of Panama GDP.
The recovery and rebuilding is going to be the hardest part.
Trump does a Netanyahu impression. Plus he pokes at the libs.
Al Jazeera - Trump reiterates claim Tehran ‘weeks away’ from having nuclear weapon. Trump has doubled down on remarks that Washington stopped Iran from deploying a nuclear weapon. Without evidence, Trump said Tehran “would have blown up the Middle East” and then “headed for our country” had the US and Israel not launched a military campaign. The president also repeated comments about Tehran striking Los Angeles and San Diego that sparked bipartisan backlash earlier this week. He said:
“They would have probably hit places like San Diego, Los Angeles first.”
CBS News via AP - Sri Lanka has no plans to help 19 Iranian tankers stuck due to blockade, foreign ministry says. Sri Lanka's government says it has no immediate plans to help 19 Iranian ships that have been anchored in the international waters near the island nation facing food, water and fuel shortages.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Thushara Rodrigo said Sri Lanka will put its national interest first before considering any help, and the companies that supply ships are aware of possible secondary sanctions from the United States. He said, however, there hasn't been any communication from the U.S. warning of repercussions should Sri Lanka decide to help. Rodrigo said the ships are stationed 24 nautical miles from Sri Lanka's coast and have reported shortages of food, water and fuel.
Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath told local Sunday Times newspaper the ships are Iranian oil tankers and they have been anchored off Sri Lanka for the past several months after the U.S. resumed its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving dozens of Iranian vessels stranded and unable to return home.
IRGC trailer shows the "new" Shahed-238 (Garan-3 copy) being used for the first time. I hope that Iran gets some Geran-5s from Russia, those seem great for striking ships in the SoH.
Geran-5
A cursory glance online says Iran has had jet powered drones since 2010, ukraine even suggests that yhe Geran-5 is based on an Iranian drone, which itself is based on an american
https://www.battlepolicy.com/geran-5/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Karrar
anyway, looks just like Thunderbird 2 and I'm geeking out 😅
Jet powered one way attack drones and mini cruise missiles are a much more significant threat than the pusher prop drones, simply because time to target is significantly reduced, the window to intercept is much shorter, even if they can still be intercepted by APKWS. The pusher prop drones generally fly slower than a car on the highway, while the turbojets fly multiple times faster. This is also visible in Ukraine with the Russian jet powered drones and cruise missiles. The Geran 5 cruise missile/drone is even incorporating TERCOM guidance and navigation, along with reducing the radar cross section, in other words going full circle back to "traditional" cruise missile design.
They can also cruise higher than props. Geran 1/2 could be shot down by small arms - I remember an old comment of yours (or maybe AMK Mapping..?) discussing the changes Russian engineers made in terminal guidance that helped avoid Ukranian fire teams doing point defence with 50cal.
The jet-powered drones take point defense out of the hands of civilians and into the hands of militias & armies, where interceptor drones, explosive warheads, rocketry, and advanced tracking all become necessary. The cost of defense skyrockets again.
Destruction Cam
Wow the editing at 1:27 is a 1:1 clone of the pre-mission screens from Call of Duty: Black Ops. I am fascinated by how good Iran's western-facing propaganda is. They understand US pop culture better than the DoD propagandists do.
Gas update (using 
AAA US national average)
Regular Current - 4.37
Regular Highest Recorded (6/15/22) - 5.02
Diesel Current - 6.27
Diesel Highest Recorded (9/22/26) - 6.52
mid-grade is for suckers and usually blended at the pump from the other two grades
EDIT: guy who demands single-origin gas for huffing so he can enjoy the terroir
I will only huff the FINEST vintage. Anything pumped in the last 10 years is utter SWILL
Barcelona and Brazilian national team striker publishes content criticizing grueling work schedules and defending the social role of the State.
Article
Brazilian national team striker Raphinha, a key player for Barcelona, used his social media to express his political views in the final stretch of the 2026 presidential race. The 29-year-old athlete shared posts on his Instagram profile criticizing abusive working hours and defending principles aligned with Lula's (PT) candidacy. With these posts, he became the first player in the current national team cycle to publicly indicate support for the candidate in the second round of the election.
The first piece of content shared by the player on his stories reflects on the physical and mental strain imposed by the demanding work routine in Brazil. The message openly criticizes grueling work schedules and regimes like the 6x1 shift, highlighting the negative impact of overwork on family life and workers' health. The recording emphasizes that work that "hurts and takes years off your life" cannot deprive citizens of fundamental rights such as leisure, culture, and rest.
The statement shared by the winger questions discourses that romanticize excessive effort without considering the reality of the low-income population. “No poverty can withstand 14 hours of work, brother. If there’s one thing that can’t withstand 14 hours of work, it’s you. We’re talking about work that sticks to your skin, that wrinkles your face, that takes away your health, that takes away time with your children. Nobody who works 14 hours a day has a right to life ,” highlights the excerpt shared by Raphinha.