137
submitted 11 months ago by doo@sh.itjust.works to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

If anything, russia is showing clear signs of sunk-cost fallacy

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment

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[-] bradorsomething@ttrpg.network 41 points 11 months ago

Russia is definitely suffering from the sunk Moscva fallacy here.

[-] thisbenzingring@lemmy.sdf.org 1 points 11 months ago

I imagine Putin shouting MORE like he has an endless supply of meat sacks to throw at the Jedi or something

[-] AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space 28 points 11 months ago

Given that every Ukrainian knows that there is no situation in which surrendering to Russia is preferable to fighting to the death, any Russian path to victory would be long and tortuous, and ending in a wasteland. “Victory” becomes a mirage.

[-] Deceptichum@kbin.social 27 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Update: The situation hasn't changed.

How is this an update? We know they're not winning, they haven't been winning since the start.

[-] doo@sh.itjust.works 27 points 11 months ago

Ah, but it's all about the context.

See, nothing was done and nothing changed, is definitely not an update.

On the other hand, "russia lost 30'000 personell in November alone, but nothing changed" is a significant update.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 18 points 11 months ago

They've already lost what, roughly ten percent of personnel?

[-] novamdomum@kbin.social 24 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

I think they've lost about the amount of troops that Napoleon lost in Russia funnily enough.

[-] HootinNHollerin@sh.itjust.works 8 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Time to banish putin to an island

[-] k_rol@lemmy.ca 1 points 11 months ago

Please put cameras, many will want to watch that!

[-] HootinNHollerin@sh.itjust.works 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

Like people watch an eagles nest. I’ll tune in for him eating a raw bird… Maybe trump will join him

[-] ahnesampo@sopuli.xyz 1 points 11 months ago

I wonder if Ukraine is willing to lease Snake Island for that.

[-] HootinNHollerin@sh.itjust.works 2 points 11 months ago

Too temperate of climate

[-] StenSaksTapir@feddit.dk 16 points 11 months ago

Doesn't mean anything. They have plenty of more meat to throw in. The horrifying thing about an enemy like russia is that they have no respect for human life and suffering is an integral part of their culture.

The people in charge are more than willing to absorb casualties that are at least an order of magnitude greater than what we've seen so far for their colonial aspirations and the population will let them.

[-] doo@sh.itjust.works 14 points 11 months ago

Oh, but it does. True, they have no regard for human casualties, but even with their population, they cannot maintain the meatwaves forever.

Let's have a look. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

So, 47% of their population is male. Out of 145 million of bodies they posses, males are 68 million. The percentage of 18-44 year olds is 35. That's 23 million potential soldiers.

Omg, that's one massive army, one would say.

But this is russia, we're talking about.

In June 2009, the Public Chamber of Russia reported over 500,000 alcohol-related deaths annually. They have 1.3% of population dying every year. In 2009 it meant about 1.8 million dead. 25% of those were alcohol related. That's only deaths.

They improved, but an average russian is still a professional alcoholic. Let's assume that a whooping 80% of those 23 millions are actually relatively healthy. That's 18 million potential soldiers.

Still a lot.

But it's still russia.

Apart from alcohol, it's famous for the widespread thievery. I'm not joking. https://ru-m-wikipedia-org.translate.goog/wiki/%D0%9F%D1%8C%D1%8E%D1%82_%D0%B8_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%83%D1%8E%D1%82?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

The big difference is that for last 9 years, Ukraine was at war with russia, while russia was enjoying its second army of the world status. In other words they were stealing as usual.

So yes, one can think that it is impossible to fight against an army of 18 million. But russia started this war with 800k and two years later, lost already half of them, bumped the army to two million and still is making an occasional 200 meters of progress only to lose them in a week.

Ukraine still not losing and not planning to, is what matters.

[-] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 12 points 11 months ago

Not quite so. Last time Putin mobilized that cause mass migration and some limited protests. In the mean time some mercenaries went on a day trip to Moscow and he still does not call the war in Ukraine a war.

In other words it is not obvious that Putin can just call more Russian men to the front on a large scale, without causing trouble for himself.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 6 points 11 months ago

I generally agree, but the devil is in the details. An order of magnitude more casualties would be approximately the entire Russian army and its reservists. It's currently thought that an army loses operational efficacy at 30-40% losses.

[-] at_an_angle@lemmy.one 1 points 11 months ago

Assuming the Russian army had any operational efficiency to begin with.

[-] StenSaksTapir@feddit.dk 1 points 11 months ago

Looking at WW2 numbers, they still have some way to go and I suppose you don't need to worry too much about defending other borders, as long as you giver a finger over the nuclear suicide button.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 5 points 11 months ago

Why should we suppose that the current Russian military is as resilient as the Soviet one was?

Come to that, why should we suppose even their nukes are in similar condition?

It's been decades of essentially government by organized crime and kleptocracy in Russia. Their shit is wack, in the parlance.

[-] Valmond@lemmy.mindoki.com 6 points 11 months ago

Half their tanks?

[-] doo@sh.itjust.works 1 points 11 months ago

About 50% of what they had at the beginning two years ago.

[-] cheese_greater@lemmy.world 15 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

In Soviet Russia, cost sinks you!

Edit: also...cost/losses CUT you!

[-] Rocketpoweredgorilla@lemmy.ca 12 points 11 months ago

They took it literally, and really ARE trying to go fuck themselves.

Sadly the reality is that as long as Putin has people with (mostly) both arms and legs, he's not going to stop tossing them into the fields to die. Nobody is winning much of anything for a long time.

[-] cheese_greater@lemmy.world 8 points 11 months ago

Russia su(n)ks!

this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2023
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