this post was submitted on 10 Jan 2026
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I think that it's interesting to look back at calls that were wrong to try to help improve future ones.

Maybe it was a tech company that you thought wouldn't make it and did well or vice versa. Maybe a technology you thought had promise and didn't pan out. Maybe a project that you thought would become the future but didn't or one that you thought was going to be the next big thing and went under.

Four from me:

  • My first experience with the World Wide Web was on an rather unstable version of lynx on a terminal. I was pretty unimpressed. Compared to gopher clients of the time, it was harder to read, the VAX/VMS build I was using crashed frequently, and was harder to navigate around. I wasn't convinced that it was going to go anywhere. The Web has obviously done rather well since then.

  • In the late 1990s, Apple was in a pretty dire state, and a number of people, including myself, didn't think that they likely had much of a future. Apple turned things around and became the largest company in the world by market capitalization for some time, and remains quite healthy.

  • When I first ran into it, I was skeptical that Wikipedia would manage to stave off spam and parties with an agenda sufficiently to remain useful as it became larger. I think that it's safe to say that Wikipedia has been a great success.

  • After YouTube throttled per-stream download speeds, rendering youtube-dl much less useful, the yt-dlp project came to the fore, which worked around this with parallel downloads. I thought that it was very likely that YouTube wouldn't tolerate this


it seems to me to have all the drawbacks of youtube-dl from their standpoint, plus maybe more, and shouldn't be too hard to detect. But at least so far, they haven't throttled or blocked it.

Anyone else have some of their own that they'd like to share?

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[–] Doomsider@lemmy.world 1 points 12 hours ago

That texting would be so popular. Coming from pagers to actual cell phones and being able to hear people talk anywhere was amazing. Going back to text messages seemed counterintuitive.

[–] ICastFist@programming.dev 12 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I thought people would miss the keyboard on smartphones. Turns out we are a small minority

[–] tal@lemmy.today 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

There are some products out there that do cater to people who want a physical keyboard on their smartphone today. It's not the norm, but if you're frustrated over it, it might work for you.

Amazon has a lot of portable Bluetooth keyboards that can basically collapse down into a pocket. Those are generally designed to be used at a table, though, not in a Blackberry-style thumb keyboard sense. I'm pretty sure that I've seen a few of the latter that can clip to a phone, though.

I wish we'd still use them. Typing this on a Unihertz Titan 2.

[–] Kolanaki@pawb.social 10 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

I never thought Twitter was gonna go anywhere. 140 character post limit? That's fuckin' stupid.

At least I was half right: 140 characters was stupid. So they increased it to 280.

But I also didn't predict it would lead to the US going full nazi.

[–] SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 day ago

I thought Apple would go broke selling the same phone over and over as a new model.

[–] hanrahan@piefed.social 3 points 1 day ago

Everything ? I though MS Office woukd fail becase no one will want to close source their data files, i was using an Amiga at the time at home and the file format was standard and you chose the app to use

It started there and just progressed, Apple was a big one, people won't buy into their closed wall'd shenanigans. Wrong again.

Messaging, what a debacle that has turned into. I assumed the system would be standardised and the fight would be over the front end for interoperability, wrong again.

[–] scarabic@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago

When the first dotcom bubble burst, I predicted that big companies would buy up all the major websites for fire sale prices and put them behind subscription paywalls. “Pay $30/month and get access to all 400 sites in the Yahoo network.”

I underestimated how easy it is to spin up alternative sites. Most of the media brands I thought of as valuable then are shit now, or gone.

And, like everyone, I didn’t anticipate social media. Even Google was still nascent at the time.

[–] NigelFrobisher@aussie.zone 11 points 2 days ago

I thought the iPad being just a giant iPhone was stupid and it wouldn’t catch on. Years on I use an iPad to read comic books in bed, though I guess tablets as a whole are kind of niche and not great as a productivity tool due to mobile OSs holding them back.

[–] zerozaku@lemmy.world 8 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I thought touchscreens would never work out. But here we are in a generation where have touchscreens in cars too.

[–] SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 day ago

we are in a generation where have touchscreens in cars too

and I thought they would be outlawed for safety concerns, but even though the data is in they are dangerous, no one will end them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2025/02/11/tesla-again-has-the-highest-accident-rate-of-any-auto-brand/

Of course, firing most of the NHTSA prevented that.

[–] Trainguyrom@reddthat.com 4 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Many kids now grow up only interacting with touchscreens and assume they're the default. I genuinely wonder if the average 18 year old knows how to use a standard PC now, given they'd be interacting with almost exclusively with chromebooks, ipads and smartphones throughout school

[–] MangoCats@feddit.it 2 points 1 day ago

My son was in kindergarten in 2005 - when touchscreens were still pretty rare - they gave him one to work with at school and were so jazzed about what he was doing they encouraged us to get one at home. I set him up with a keyboard instead, and he kicked butt with the keyboard just as well, if not better than, he did on the touch screen. Of course, iPod / iPads followed soon after - anybody can use a touch screen, it doesn't hurt to know how to use the keys too.

[–] Acidbath@lemmy.world 14 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I hate microsoft but really liked windows phone and cortana. Something about tiles made a lot of sense and the keyboard was clean af.

I am very sure they were the first to have url bar above the keyboard in their browser WHICH WAS VERY HELPFUL BECAUSE YOUR FINGERS ARE ALREADY AT THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE PHONE LIKE OMFG.

like there was so many little things they did that just worked and worked well. rip windows phone, i will tell my grandkids about you.

[–] MangoCats@feddit.it 3 points 1 day ago

I really wanted the Linux/Qt/Jolla phone to happen. They still haven't refunded the other half of my deposit...

Firefox for Android still defaults to this. I don't understand.

[–] northernlights@lemmy.today 18 points 2 days ago (3 children)

"Bitcoin will never take". I mined a few at the very beginning when it was easy, out of curiosity, and didn't bother backing up because it was useless anyway. Ahem.

[–] mirshafie@europe.pub 10 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I mined a bit too. Got almost 2 bitcoin in 2 weeks. Figured it was a pyramid scheme, went back to running folding@home. Forgot my wallet passphrase.

[–] Jeffool@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I bought and moved like 1 in late 2013 when it spiked just to play with it and see how it worked, out of curiosity about the tech. (And soon after, mined Dogecoin on Reddit when it started, and we all began tipping like crazy because it was fun and funny.) I made a few bucks off the BTC and kinda regretted not holding it longer. Then cut to a decade later... Sheesh. I may be more sour on the tech now, but damn I'm not so crazy as to not regret selling it.

[–] QuiteQuickQum@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

Us early Doge sponsored a NASCAR driver! I have 30-40k locked in an unused wallet. It's amazingly stupid that's a thing. It was never meant to have value!

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[–] xenomor@lemmy.world 112 points 3 days ago (12 children)

In the mid-nineties I passionately believed that the internet would democratize information and usher in a wonderful new era of well-informed critical thinking and general enlightenment. Basically the opposite has happened.

[–] scarabic@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

It did that, but we had an overly rosy view of what “democratize” meant. We thought that citizen journalists would leaven the bulky corporate media of the time. And they did. But there was also a torrent of bullshit. We have no excuse for not seeing this. The Greeks and Romans spent a great deal of thought on what would happen if the rabble were given a voice. We dismissed their ideas as gatekeeping oligarchy, but it turns out that populism is moatly a dirty word.

[–] demonsword@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

In the mid-nineties I passionately believed that the internet would democratize information and usher in a wonderful new era of well-informed critical thinking and general enlightenment

The profit motive killed this dream. Capitalism seems to wither anything it touches.

[–] SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone 60 points 3 days ago (3 children)

Man I think all of us mistakenly thought this. The early internet had such promise.

[–] kevin2107@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

it was like that for a few. now AI will definitely make people braindead, how many years of brainrot can the mind endure?

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[–] Blackmist@feddit.uk 20 points 2 days ago

The Wii. Previous gen console specs. Silly gimmick controller. Best selling peripheral was a step.

Most popular shit in the history of everything.

[–] Meron35@lemmy.world 22 points 2 days ago (4 children)

I never thought tablet computers would become popular among the mainstream public.

When the iPad first came out, it was functionally worse than even the cheap netbooks, and I didn't see much purpose in the larger screen with phones getting bigger and bigger every year. Wireless display was also already available, so I envisioned people would just cast content to a TV if they really wanted a bigger screen. Even reading articles etc seemed to be already covered by eReaders, which were already available for half a decade by the time the iPad released.

Little did I know how brain rotted people would become.

Tbh I personally still don't see the utility in most tablets, except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

[–] Trainguyrom@reddthat.com 3 points 2 days ago

except in specific niches like in digital note taking/drawing, or industrial cases where it becomes a glorified HUD.

The one niche that they're probably the biggest is the "I just need a public facing web browser in this spot"

Its really hard to beat a locked down iPad for that usecase, both from a financial perspective (~$250 hardware cost for a lowest-tier iPad was the price I was seeing when ordering and provisioning them for this usecase) and from a management perspective (join it to the MDM and by nature of being an iPad, even if they get out of the browser window its really hard to cause trouble, basically 0 malware risk and iOS has far less obtrusive updates than Windows) plus from a support perspective you can simply walk users through rebooting them and swap the hardware if it needs more than a reboot

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[–] ebolapie@lemmy.world 21 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

I wrote a term paper once about how twitter would enable citizen journalism and lead to a more informed public and a healthier, more direct democracy. I got an A.

I was a pretty huge fan of Zune and I still miss it.

[–] billwashere@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I never had one but IMO Zune was one of the few Microsoft hw wins. And their mice.

[–] lichtmetzger@discuss.tchncs.de 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

And the Sidewinder Force Feedback Pro joystick. Came out in 1998 and people still build USB adapters today to make it work in modern racing games and flight simulators.

Using light sensors was wild back then, the successor didn't use them anymore because they cheaped out.

[–] billwashere@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

Now that you mention it I have one of those too. Somewhere.

[–] Yaky@slrpnk.net 26 points 3 days ago (3 children)

When Steam first appeared (and was required to play Half-Life 2 IIRC), I thought that was a ridiculous idea to have a middle man to play a game. Well, what do I know, everyone loves Steam now (yet hates on other launchers).

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[–] MajorasMaskForever@lemmy.world 10 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I thought that AMDs move with Ryzen being heavily multi core architecture was dumb, and that they'd fail like bulldozer

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