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this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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Its all a crap shoot to me. None of us has the predictive powers we profess. Biden is just as likely to win/lose as Kamala is, as is Bernie, and so on.
Theres different reasons for each person, but noone knows really what's best. I'm still of the opinion that Trump has gone way too far and there will be so many people coming out to vote against him, that he's essentially running against himself.
But thats just my theory, based on pretty much a feeling.
Thanks to ballot access deadlines in several key states, this just isn't the case. It's Biden or Trump unless one of them dies in the meantime. If you tried to field Kamala as a replacement against a living Biden, you'd end up with a number of electors under faithless elector laws required to vote for Biden despite him having stepped down to make way for Kamala, possibly enough to trigger a one vote per state decision.
You aren't wrong about him essentially running against himself. It's entirely about whether or not people who would vote against Trump actually go out and vote for Biden (or his replacement should he die) in sufficient numbers.
But it's nearly always the GOP running against themselves, turnout is basically what decides US presidential elections. It's just writ lager with Trump.
Everyone I know is already voting against trump, I can't do much else than hope my faith in there being enough decent people is not misfounded.
I'm sure theres still a few more people trump could offend before the election is here though. I though his behavior during and after the assassination attempt to be awful, maybe someone else does too and they feel that much firmer in voting against him.
The country is so big though, I know my own anecdotes only go so far.
I haven't heard about this inability to get the electors to vote for a different candidate even if hr steps down though, do you have more information on that?