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this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2024
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Quite a few. It's a positive impact to his campaign.
This election cycle isn't going to be won by bringing voters in from across the aisle, or appealing more to centrists. This election is going to be won by whichever candidate can energize voters more within swing states.
Realistically, I expect Biden to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college.
So on one hand, some Trumpers may be motivated enough to get off the couch because some idiot took a shot at him. On the other hand, Dems should be motived by things like access to abortion and staving off an attempt to institute a christofascist autocracy.
Should doesn't matter. What is matters.
This election is going to be purely vibes-based, nobody is undecided. Whichever candidate can get the highest turnout wins.
Right now, sad to say, Trump is winning that vibes battle.
I don't see any evidence for this. Of course, the media has a shiny new story to obsess about but that's not the same thing.
Biden's polling has been tanking, aligning with the popular protesting against the Palestinian Genocide and the recent poor debate performance, with major calls for him to step down even from within the DNC.
Trump's polling has been rising, his voters are unified, and he has managed to pull an amazing PR victory out of his assassination attempt.
Trump doesn't look better now to Biden voters. Trump looks better to Trump voters than Biden looks to Biden voters, which is what will matter more than appealing to centrists this election.
Ah, polling.
I guess you have more faith in the accuracy of that than I do.
Not the hard numbers, no, but trends? Yes.
https://lemmy.world/post/17619808?scrollToComments=true
We aren't talking about people switching from Biden to Trump. We are talking about people actually showing up to vote on Election Day.
Nobody is undecided between them if voting was mandatory, what is up for flux is which side will show up more.
You mentioned that you put some stock in the polling. I indulged you by posting a link showing no bump for Trump post-shooting. Now you say it's down to turnout which is pretty much a given.
I'm honestly not sure what point you're trying to make here.
By polling, I mean voter turnout, not which way voters would vote if they do vote.
It's down to turnout, yes. America does not have mandatory voting, ergo whichever candidate can unify and energize their base will win. Centrists already know who they are voting for, proved by the link you provided.
Biden is seeing constant controversy among likely democrat voters, meanwhile Trump is the current GOP darling.
I really don't see how the DNC can pull out a win unless they pull out all support from Israel and/or toss Biden and bring on someone younger, with broader appeal and higher energy.
They win by hammering the point that a Trump victory means the end of the US in its current form. No hyperbole.
Republicans are already blaming that rhetoric for the assassination attempt. So democrats are going to tone that kind of messaging way down for fear of inciting more political violence.
Why would the Democrats have to refrain from telling the truth? The assassination attempt wasn't their doing.
They don't have to do anything. But they are.
Doubtful that that will bring out voters. Historically, voters voting for something outperform voters voting against something.
You really don't think that preventing a national ban on abortion will bring out voters? How about a reversal on tackling climate change? Maybe voting to stop a slide into christofascist authoritarianism?
Come on.
Not as much as promising to implement national bans on abortion, slowing climate change action, and implementing more "christian values" would among conservative voters, no.
Democrat voters have to hold their nose and vote for Biden, largely. Some people still genuinely like him, sure, but compared to Trump, who has a unified base and full support, the Democrats are fractured.
👍
Funny how well written they can be, and follow such little logic.
(Not the same person you were in that convo with btw) I've always felt that Biden was going to rely on grassroots pro choice groups to really kick up the voter engagement. That's where the Taylor Swift factor will come in.
Agreed. The election is about what people stand to lose if they stay home, not just about how old and infirm Biden is.
That's a nothing sandwich with a side order of nothing. As far as motivating voters. It doesn't apply to any one person. Any Democratic candidate could be saying these things, whether Biden, Harris, any of the other Democratic candidates from 2020, or a Speak-n-spell with a blue sticker on it. The GOP has, for decades, ran on people before policies. When they didn't, they lost.
And whether we like it or not we don't live in a logical system where policies are all that matter. If we did we could have a direct democracy and have every citizen vote directly on each policy. Instead we have a Republic, so the person making the empty campaign promises matters. Their personality matters. Their energy and likeability matters. It's why Obama won, and Clinton before him. But now, the Democrats either can't see that or don't want to, or they're led by bad actors who want to lose.