Image depicts a destroyed Saudi pipeline pumping station.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
If last week has had a geopolitical main character, it was Ansarallah in Yemen. In under 24 hours, they managed to seize a very large amount of territory to their west from Saudi-backed mercenary groups. Tens of thousands of enemy soldiers fled, thousands more were captured, and hundreds of combat vehicles and all sorts of military equipment and ammunition are now in Ansarallah's hands. The entire Red Sea coast of Yemen is now under their control, as well as some of the islands in and around the Bab el-Mandab, which is the narrow strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, which then goes on to connect to the Arabian Sea.
While Ansarallah had a pretty good grip on the Red Sea beforehand and could blockade it to the extent that traffic through the Red Sea plummeted in 2024 and 2025 and remain subdued to this day, it is now capable of much more direct control. And the strait is considerably narrower than Hormuz, meaning there is little hope for any covert operations like those of which the US regularly tries and fails to do over there. The only alternatives for the enemies of Ansarallah both now and in the future are the route all the way around Africa, which becomes even less attractive than usual as fuel prices rise into daily record highs, or the newly inaugurated Northern Sea Route under the firm control of Russia.
While Ansarallah is likely to continue their territorial acquisitions to an extent - with Marib looking like an obvious target - how things will continue from this point seems likely to be increasingly diplomatic. Yemen was once divided between North Yemen (which is, really, western Yemen) and South Yemen (which is, really, eastern Yemen), and this division reflects several genuine historical differences between the populations. Ansarallah has repeatedly stated that they have no intention to militarily occupy the south, and indeed, they ended this most recent offensive at approximately the historical border. Nonetheless, the government in once-South Yemen's capital of Aden is considered the sole internationally recognized government of Yemen, which doesn't sound sustainable for the future, so we'll just have to see how the situation develops geopolitically from here, even if it's unlikely to be militarily in the case of the southern and eastern territories.
While all this has been going on, Ansarallah was additionally applying major pressure on Saudi Arabia itself, by bombing their military airfields and, even more critically, their oil transportation and production facilities. These strikes were mostly limited to the port facilities in e.g. Yanbu and Jazan, and the Western air interceptor famine has meant that these strikes were mostly unopposed and caused substantial losses. However, Ansarallah has now destroyed some pumping stations for the East-West pipeline that spans Saudi Arabia, bypassing Hormuz for some (but not all) of Saudi Arabia's oil production to the tune of around 4 million barrels per day, which is, in a happy numerical coincidence, about 4% of pre-2026 oil production. I've seen several wildly varying estimates for how long it might take to repair the stations, with some saying a few days and others stating at least a month; the damage does look pretty gnarly on the images. Of course, it might not really matter, because Ansarallah can easily just fire another missile at a station once it's repaired, unless and until the Saudis give in to Ansarallah's demands and end the war.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Saudi Arabia is now firing Chinese made ballistic missiles at Ansar Allah/Houthi forces in Yemen.
The booster stage of a solid fueled Chinese made DF-15A ballistic missile landed in Raghwan, Marib.
Source for videos and images, xcancel mirror that still works, ignore inaccurate text
Saudi Arabia has had an interesting relationship with Chinese ballistic missiles, first buying liquid fueled DF-3A IRBMs in the 1980s, with that purchase suspected to have been complimented by Chinese solid fueled DF-21 MRBMs and DF-11 and DF-15 SRBMs in the mid 2000s. The DF-15A is now confirmed to be in the Saudi arsenal, so it is highly likely that the Saudis have the DF-21 and maybe even the DF-11 as well. It is speculated that the DF-15 missiles Saudi Arabia got were originally made for Syria. There are three upgraded models of the DF-15 in service. The A model with extended range and limited terminal homing/guidance capability, the B model with a Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (MaRV) and extensive terminal guidance (in my opinion by far the most useful model), and the C model to strike hardened targets. It is unknown if the Saudis possess B and/or C model DF-15s alongside their A models.
The Saudi Arabian Air Force continues to put up a pathetic amount of sorties in Yemen, only 50-60 airstrikes a day nevermind sorties. A single aircraft can carry out multiple airstrikes per sortie , an F-15 can hit up to 20 targets per sortie for an extreme example, just to put the abysmal performance of the Saudis into perspective (most likely due to incompetence, the Saudis don't even have spotters/JTACs on the ground in Yemen to actually guide tactical air power), which could explain the use of ballistic missiles now. The Saudis are the same military that used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to crater a runway, firing ballistic missiles at other targets just because they have them makes sense given their all round incompetence.
Are we going to have a situation here where different sides in these conflicts will all be using Chinese weapons to shoot each other because the only thing that China really cares about is Taiwan?
We are already in such a situation, the early stages. The UAE made substantial use of Chinese made weaponry (MALE UAVs) in strikes on Iran, and Iran has used Chinese made MANPADs to shoot down a low flying US F-15E. The RSF in Sudan have Chinese made air defence systems, which have gotten into engagements with Turkish MALE UAVs (the UAVs winning some, the air defence systems shooting down other aircraft. Chinese weapons will probably replace Soviet era weaponry in these kind of conflicts. I doubt that the Russians can compete with the Chinese in the arms market with the war in Ukraine among other issues, and the USA is restrictive with sales.
It's a less ideological but deadlier echo of Soviet arms exports. What is a ballistic missile if not a really big, fast, explosive, AK-47?
^thinking about it, most of these same countries still run substantial soviet exports, some of which are as technically advanced as these missiles and drones. It's just endless.^
They did that in the first year or two of the Russian Ukrainian war with drones. They're still kind of doing that as far as drone parts go. I think DJI has tripled in size since 2020.
That doesn't seem like it'd do much, if any, permanent damage to a runway?
exactly, it's an expensive (2.5m per) munition and runway damage is reparable in a few hours with an earthmover and grading equipment
Reminds me of using a sidewinder to down a weather balloon lol
They even used an F-22 (their most expensive to use air frame), scoring its only ever combat kill lol
And then in Iran the F-22s didn't get any confirmed kills on Iranian fighters during their patrols, and were instead used to destroy S-300/Bavar-373 air defence systems with SDBs according to CENTCOM. And an Israeli F-35 got the first confirmed 5th gen fighter air to air kill to top it all off. The F-22 will probably retire without ever having shot down another manned aircraft.
You are right, it was all worth it to make number go up
Appreciate the information as always
how do they compare to iran's/usrael's
The DF-15 series of ballistic missiles are single stage ballistic missiles with a warhead that separates from the booster stage, with a range of 700-900km depending on the variant. The DF-15B is the most useful of them all, with it's MaRV, visually similar in appearance to the Pershing II MaRV, allowing for high accuracy in theory, and an ability to complicate ballistic missile defence (although modern ballistic missile defence systems are tested against MaRVs). As for a similar Iranian system in range and payload, the Zulfiqar and Dezful missiles would be comparable. Israel has the Air LORA air launched ballistic missile with a longer range than the ground launched LORA, and the USA the PrSM, though the PrSM is brand new, no stockpile, and uses a different kind of warhead, tungsten rain of sorts vs a more conventional blast fragmentation warhead. The DF-21 can be considered a two stage DF-15B if you want, with a substantial range increase. There are also air launched and anti ship variants of the DF-21. The Iranian Kheibar Shekan series of ballistic missiles are roughly comparable in range, and Iran recently unveiled an anti ship variant of it. The USA had the nuclear armed Pershing II, which is actually very similar in external appearance to the DF-21, but retried them all at the end of the cold war.
that seems to contradict observed performance do we know how many the sauds have?
No idea how many the Saudis have, or even if they have MaRV equipped variants of the missiles.
The MaRVs are significantly harder to shoot down, but they can be intercepted. Ideally you'd want to shoot it before it starts maneuvering with a higher altitude/tier system like SM-3, Arrow 3 or THAAD, but that's not always possible (especially given ammunition shortages of these higher altitude systems, we were not in that territory previously, but we are there now). The latest lower altitude/terminal intercept systems such as SM-6 and PAC-3 CRI and MSE are still tested against MaRVs, but without the higher altitude systems to thin the herd of missiles incoming, can be overwhelmed more easily, and you have to hit a high speed maneuvering target.
For instance in the lastest missile barrage, Iran launched over 35-40 ballistic missiles of various types in a sophisticated multi layered attack (MaRV equipped, high altitude cluster munitions, non MaRV equipped) at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, with only PATRIOT appearing to engage, no higher altitude support. Even with a 90% intercept rate, that's 4 missiles leaking through and 80 interceptors fired at a rate of 2 interceptors per incoming missile... If those four missiles are accurate, and Iranian missiles appear to be significantly more accurate at longer ranges now, that's significant damage. Apparently 1x A-10C destroyed and 8x F-15Es sustaining shrapnel damage, just from the handful of missiles that got through of the 35-40 fired.
A full 2:30 video of that Iranian barrage vs interceptors
You can see the different types of trajectories the different kinds of Iranian missiles take, plus interceptions and missiles getting through. Missiles maneuvering, the interceptors responding to the maneuvers.
This is test footage of PATRIOT PAC-3 vs a Pershing-II target. This video really showcases just how much maneuvering goes on to intercept a MaRV, even in testing.
Shit, huge China L...
china needs to trade and can not effect political outcomes - it can not not trade with any nation or try to effect Geopolitical outcomes BECAUSE that would violate the central political pillar of china needing to trade. & and not to effect geopolitical Outcomes . there is great oppurtunities for Profit by selling the capitalist the rope to strangle global southern nations with. The chinese have read Marx so they know that Imperialsit Nation will be in constant deemand of Rope.
I rationally understand this, but fuck does it hurt to see this, kinda a materialist blow to my idealist hopes.
It's fine to mark it as a "China L" they can take it.
repeat ad infinitum. who will run out first, the rope or the "avthentic proletarian nations"
The Saudis are always looking to buy the lastest military technology from anyone, like a rich kid at the toy store. Recently they were looking for a stealth fighter and weighed the US made F-35 vs the Chinese J-35, and signed some sort of deal for F-35s (which I highly doubt they'll get given recent events).
It was during the period that China brokered a peace deal between Iran and the Saudis. With rumors of them ditching the petrodollar abound.
Then the Empire had to put them back in place with the Gaza Genocide and all the fallout of that.
Thanks for the context, I was totally missing that
Not really, if they usurp military industrial supply that kneecaps western imperialism. Yeah, people will do bad things with the weapons but ultimately it means the USA can't do imperialism effectively as their industrial throughput of arms will crater. Imagine a world where the USA can't sell or give out m16s because they're too expensive, it might become so expensive that they can't give Israel freebies anymore. It also gives China tremendous leverage, at some point they could just simply stop supplying arms and kill off entire wars.
The US has always relied on vassalage for weapon sales, the USSR always offered cheaper and arguably better alternatives because they knew how to mass-produce (see the price of the T-54 and variants, the most widely manufactured tank in history).