Image is of smoke rising after Iranian missiles impact a US military site in Bahrain.
My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
After a few weeks of both diplomatic and military manuevering - mostly over Iranian control of Hormuz - we have hit the hottest phase of military exchanges since at least the MoU period began. The US has generally focussed on striking southern Iran, although they have also sporadically hit transportation infrastructure elsewhere, which was repaired in less than 24 hours. Meanwhile, Iran has struck a wide range of targets, with an interesting focus on Jordan, but has, up to the time of me writing this, so far relented on striking the Zionist entity. The US and Iran have had little periods of mutual military strikes during the "ceasefire" before, and so it's hard to tell for sure whether this yet another temporary spat or if it represents a full return to the pre-ceasefire conflict.
A complicating factor in this conflict is that Ansarallah has become increasingly active, and seems eager to start to break the siege it has been put under by threatening to attack Saudi Arabia and Saudi-aligned forces. This has put Iran in a somewhat awkward spot. On the one hand, it has greatly helped Ansarallah resist foreign attackers and has even recently sent civilian airplanes into Sana'a to begin to break the siege. On the other hand, Iran has, with China's help, generally desired to improve its relationship with the Saudis over the years. While in this latest war there have been a major dispute between them over whether Iran is "allowed" to strike US military infrastructure located in Saudi Arabia, the Saudis strike me as considerably less anti-Iran as the UAE, let alone the Zionists, and did send a delegation to Khamenei's funeral. I guess we'll just have to see what happens next, but I strongly suspect that Iran is going to help Yemen over the Saudis.
And finally, Lindsay Graham has died of a sudden heart attack a suspiciously short time after visiting Ukraine. He was a true enemy of civilian populations all the way to the end of his life, and he seemed to particularly despise children. He advocated for using nukes against Gaza and the total annihilation of anybody and everybody who had even the meekest criticism of Zionism. If God (and, more pertinently in this case, Satan) does exist, I hope Graham is extended the exact same level of courtesy and respect in the afterlife that Graham extended to all Palestinians.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Outside of regular rotations of US fighter aircraft, the first big move just took place suggesting a wider air campaign vs Iran is being considered.
12x (estimate) USAF F-16CJ with the HTS (HARM Targeting System) from the 52nd Fighter Wing, 480th Fighter Squadron in Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany are headed towards the Middle East (Jordan specifically), to suppress air defences with AGM-88 series anti radiation missiles (HARM/AARGM) and geolocate emissions with the AN/ASQ-213 HARM Targeting System (HTS) pod. F-16s from this particular squadron specialise in this mission given this equipment. Additional equipment, such as the Angry Kitten EW pod and JASSM cruise missiles, have also been used.
Source
9x USAF F-35As from the 48th Fighter Wing, 495th Fighter Squadron in RAF Lakenheath are also headed towards the Middle East.
Source
Mid air refueling aircraft were repositioned to make these deployment possible in advance in the previous days.
The USS Boxer is also currently taking part in the US war against Iran, arriving after many delays, due to a hurricane and an engine failure. It has swapped positions with the USS Tripoli, no longer taking part in the war against Iran. The USS Boxer has a well deck, the USS Tripoli does not. An important factor for amphibious operations. It also has a squadron of F-35Bs.
As for US strategic bombers, all the forward deployed B-52Hs have left RAF Fairford, but the B-1Bs are still there, however no sign that they have taken part in the latest war actions yet.
The F-22 Raptors left the Middle East a few days ago, along with some F-15Es (no like for like replacemens), the A-10Cs and EA-18Gs that left were replaced with another flight of A-10Cs and EA-18Gs respectively.
Welcome back! I've been jonesing for a hit of the crack that is a Marmite Military Update post
Was literally wondering if the B-1B have done anything in the latest operations I checked this mega and thought about Marmites updates. Marmite did not disappoint.
Welcome back Marmite!
Does the US have enough munitions to make the strategy of "daily standoff strikes" viable?
Hence the F-16s from Germany and F-35s from the UK deploying to the Middle East now. A force to suppress air defences to allow strikes deep into Iran without heavy dependence on cruise missiles.
The F-16CJ and EA-18G are the only US aircraft that currently fire the AGM-88 series of anti radiation missiles. The regular F-18C and E/F also can, but I haven't seen them loaded on those aircraft in years. The F-35s version of the AGM-88, the AARGM-ER, is delayed, the F-35 "only" has the SDB series of glide bombs to destroy air defence systems (launchers and emitters).
It depends if you’re talking about 2 weeks or 4 weeks
I guess we will likely find out how much China AA tech has been made available to Iran during the MOU pause in the near future. I'm also curious how much jet fuel the US has in reserve at their peripheral bases currently, and how many long range sorties they sustain can until there's just not enough fuel anymore.
On fuel, then you'll be very interested in this video. 548 000 gallons of fuel were pumped at one location/base for the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025...
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
how does this movement compare to the buildup/availability of airframes prior to the initial USraeli strike on Iran in the spring? vibes based analysis suggests they are not capable of striking iran as hard as the first time around, but I'd like to hear your more informed perspective
Most of the aircraft that the US deployed before or during the war, simply never left or got replaced by rotations. All the 10-12x F-22s and a squadron of F-15Es (not all) have left without replacement, those simply aren't in the middle east anymore. The B-52Hs also aren't at RAF Fairford, the B-1Bs still are. The US did start the war with no forward deployed bombers back in March. However, the US also deployed additional forces during the "ceasefire" especially the Marines. The Marines deployed F-18Cs and F-35Cs to land bases in Abu Dhabi according to public information. Also, both US aircraft carriers, the USS George Washington and USS Abraham Lincoln, are operating in the Arabian sea this time, around 250km from the Iranian coastline, with the USS Boxer. The USS Abraham Lincoln has the F-35Cs and EA-18Gs with the NGJ pods, and the F-35Bs on the USS Boxer can supplement the USS George Washington, whose air wing has no F-35Cs. Essentially the US has two F-35 equipped air wings in the Arabian sea if you add in the USS Boxer's F-35Bs, even if they are less capable than the Cs (smaller combat radius + only 1000lb bombs internally). Previously, they only had one air wing in the Arabian Sea, with the USS Gerald Ford off the coast of Israel and not near the Arabian sea, with no F-35s. So you could say the current Force is more heavy on the Marines and Navy than the Air Force when compared to the start of the war, with 3 ships + land based aircraft in Abu Dhabi, vs one at the start and no land bases aircraft that close.
The big loss in numbers and capability for the US, is no Israeli involvement. That's over 200 fighter aircraft, 48x of which are F-35s, and unique capabilities like air launched ballistic missiles and a variety of human in the loop guided weapons not available for the current phase of the war. That's the biggest loss in numbers for the air war. The US is simply not going to replace that, no Gulf nation operates F-35s or the advanced weaponry Israel does. The US is not going to find the space or ability to surge 200+ fighters in days. The Saudis are such an incompetent force that they wasted Strom Shadow cruise missiles to crater a runway in Yemen at a civilian airport a few days ago. That makes the US Navy overuse of Tomahawks seem sane by comparison.
I heard they missed.
The US has what like 3 or 4 “bunker buster” bombs left by now, what need is there to station heavy bombers?
Iran might win this thing just by default even before the oil price shock hits the global economy. The US seems to be running out of ammo.
It's the GBU-57 which they're probably running really low on (if they even have any left at all), but those were dropped by B-2s. B-1s could still be used to launch missiles, or drop smaller bunker busters like the GBU-72 (which, with JDAM kits, can be launched at least some distance away, they're not quite proper standoff weapons but they at least don't require you to fly right over the target).
How many missiles like the JASSM the US has left, and what state those B-1s are in given their recent readiness rates and all the use they saw, is a different question.
Bombers don't just carry the extraordinarily massive bombs. A B-1B bomber can carry 24x 2000lb GBU-31 series JDAMs, a B-52H 20x, a B-2 16x. These are still large bombs with "bunker busting" capability, obviously not going to destroy a mountain, but they can punch through some re-enforcement. They are widely used by the US. An F-35A or C can only carry 2x GBU-31 internally. An F-15E or F-35A or C with external stores, can carry 4x GBU-31. So the bomber brings a lot more firepower. Bombers can also carry a lot more 500lb class JDAMs (GBU-38) and laser guided JDAMs (GBU-54) than fighters. I know that the B-2 can carry 80x GBU-38 on a special bomb rack, all individually targetable. I think the B-1B can carry 48x GBU-54/GBU-38. Laser guided bombs can hit moving targets which solely GNSS guided bombs cannot. The B-1B and B-52H can employ laser guided weapons, the B-2 cannot. Bombers can also carry a lot more cruise missiles than fighters, the B-1B can carry 24x AGM-158 JASSM series cruise missiles, B-2 16x, B-52 20x. An F-16C only 2x, an F-15E up to 5x if I recall correctly.
As for the bigger bombs, the B-2 can carry 8x 5000lb series bombs (GBU-28/GBU-72), the B-1B 12x. These are in more limited production, not widely used. An F-15E could carry 2x of these.
As for the clown sized bomb I think you're talking about, the 30 000lb GBU-57 MOP, only the B-2 can carry it, 2x GBU-57 per B-2. Very seldom used, there are only two occasions it has been known to have been used. In the 2025 US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, (14x GBU-57 used) and once during the 2026 US-Iran war according to Fox News (6x used), the second Fox News claim being much more dubious than the first. There are 7 publicly known variants of the GBU-57, the original GBU-57/B, and variants GBU-57A/B to F/B. Suggests a weapon that is bespoke in design for certain targets, specific variants for specific targets. So not something that is going to be dropped en masse, or anywhere close to it. No one really knows how many exist, probably not a lot, and a significant part of the stockpile is probably reserved for targets outside of Iran.
Gotcha, so is it fair to say that the US force in theatre this time around is larger than what was deployed in March, but smaller overall because Israel is not currently involved in this bombing campaign?
Regarding strategic bombers, even the B2s used previously were coming in and out via the UK, so were never landed in theatre. They could be used again this time around with a delay of a few days to mobilize and fly missions in theatre. In essence, the US has more or less the same strategic bomber presence as before, is that right?
Yeah you could argue that US forces are set up to have increased sortie rates this time round with simply more aircraft closer to Iran, that don't need to fly hundreds of miles to Jordan or Israel every time. But overall weaker without Israeli involvement. My theory on that is that Israeli Arrow 2 and 3 anti ballistic missile interceptor stocks are critically low now, and Israel do not want to get involved due to that. In 2025 it was too early to talk about that, but now it makes sense. Any Israeli involvement would have to use widespread offensive strikes on Iranian civil infrastructure ("massive retaliation" that Israel talks about) as a means of deterring Iran from firing ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. That is a very poor strategy which has pretty much no chance of working. So Israel is out of the picture, for now. Obviously that can change very quickly.
The B-2s previously all flew out of the continental USA from Whiteman AFB, so the only real difference to the US strategic bomber presence is the lack of forward deployed B-52s. But at the start of the war in March 1st I think, the US had no strategic bombers forward deployed, they all arrived during the war.
Thank you comrade
Makes sense why they've not been able to penetrate Iranian airspace as much as last time; They've been running on a fraction of their SEAD forces up until now. More strikes on Tehran are coming