askchapo

I work in the automotive industry, though not on tractors, trucks or cars themselves, in general on the necessary (but not essential) accessory components to them. It wouldn't surprise me if the mainline auto and aerospace industries are mostly domestically sourced at this point, but the main life-blood of manufacturing outside of those large cities runs off of those peripheral inputs from China (because they can't compete with the large domestic needs of those mainline industries). While places like Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Buffalo, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and other industrial hubs would probably be fine in the event of a major war with China, all the mid-size cities (less than 100,000) would see what is left of their industry completely decimated and their labor eaten by the big cities, which would only exacerbate the problems that those cities have, as people who generally chose not to migrate to large cities are suddenly forced to compete in those labor markets in order to retain a job in their field. It may not seem like a big deal, but imagine if every single midsize city suddenly lost the monetary input of their top 15-10% earners. It would be completely devastating to the local economy on all levels. If an unprecedented collapse happens, it will occur in these less managed parts of the country, and those consequences will radiate out towards the population centers at an escalating rate that the statisticians can't predict because there hasn't been enough data collected to manage properly.

That said, it really depends on if Washington is actually serious about fucking with China, or are just playing it up for domestic politics points or trying to scare businesses into lessening their supply chain commitment to China so that they can eventually commit to a conflict. People are definitely hearing the warning signs around here, but there is no real way to de-couple from them, as there are very few domestic inputs that are as cost-effective or well-established as the Chinese ones at this point in time. Every year, the supply chain guys try to figure out a solution, but it is trying to square a circle, as any supply we don't pick up is supply that the competition can pick up and potentially contest for market share. The very logic of capitalist expansion and development prevents them from orienting themselves in a way that protects them from actions of the State Department. All I can say is that the next couple decades will continue to be interesting, whether or not anything actually significant occurs.

Edit: I need to practice being more specific. When I say 'heavy industry won't survive' what I mean is 'the product diversification of heavy industry won't survive'. Basically, we will see a completely unrecognizable market landscape the consequences of we can scarcely imagine.